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72 Nawar boot lickers recced this post BAWAHAHAMsg 80866 of 255605 at 3/11/2017 11:28:21 AM by Nawaralsaadi report abuse recommend The following message was updated on 3/11/2017 11:29:47 AM. This graph is why bulls should go long this market This graph which I derived from the EIA data, shows global YoY growth in oil supply vs. global oil demand since 2014, notice how demand growth flipped ahead of supply growth since March 2016, nine months prior to any OPEC cut: If you go back in this graph, you will see, the largely US driven, production surge that triggered the collapse in Q4/2014, this was followed by the OPEC surge in Q2-Q3/2015. If it was not for Iran, coming back post sanctions, and growing production from 2.85m in Jan 2016 to 3.72m in Dec 2016, global supply growth would have been negative for practically all of 2016. The oil market is a slow moving ship, it took a long time for supply growth to exceed demand growth before prices reacted in a material way. The reverse will equally be true, if not longer, since we still have to work off large excess inventories, nonetheless, the trends in supply and demand growth are unmistakably bullish, anyone going short this market against such a bullish backdrop is playing with fire. Nawar |
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