This is not intended to dispute much of what you say, but does raise an issue that has bothered me.
There is sort of an unsaid opinion that a lot of these very leveraged firms go bankrupt and then their oil never hits the market. I question that opinion. When the firm goes bankrupt, the heavily leveraged firms are suddenly not very leveraged at all since the debt will now own the company. The costs of debt service suddenly go away for the most part, which only leaves the capex to be recovered in the price of the oil sold. The I in EBITDA suddenly goes poof. The debt covenants suddenly go poof. The shareholder's equity goes poof. Mainly, what I do want to concentrate on is the fact that the companies will suddenly become profitable at a much lower price of oil sans interest payments. Hopefully, companies like GDP go zombie and do not continue to pump, but they may do so. They are totally unhedged in 2016. Interesting times.
The new owners will have drill enough to retain the leases.