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Msg  13312 of 13329  at  9/28/2023 7:00:12 AM  by


PM investor day

PM is holding an investor day today. They typically do this once every three years, at which time they give guidance for the following three years. In this case, it is guidance for 2024-2026, as well as some broad goals for 2030, and updates on the status of products and plans.
Because they are headquartered in Switzerland, the presentations started at 4am eastern time this morning, and will conclude a little before noon eastern time. You can watch the presentations or replays of them on PM's investor relations website. PM also issued a press release outlining many of the topics to be discussed.
PM updated their guidance for 2023 to reflect continued strengthening of the US dollar versus most other world currencies. As such, the estimated negative currency impact rose to 50 cents per share versus 33 cents previously, resulting in an overall drop in expected EPS of 17 cents per share. Operationally, they otherwise held to their previous guidance, with somewhat stronger expected operational results in Q3, possibly offset by somewhat softer expected 4th quarter results due to inventory adjustments ahead of an upcoming flavor ban for IQOS sticks in the EU.
PM will apply to the FDA for PMTA authorization for ILUMA next month. However, they do not expect to receive it until the second half of their 3 year forecast, in other words probably late 2025 or 2026. When they launch IQOS in the US next May, it will be with the 2.4 and 3.0 blade devices already approved. They plan to be strategic in the rollout, initially in just two states, with plans for nationwide rollout at the time that ILUMA is hopefully approved.
Overall, the growth rates for 2024-2026 are expected to be strong, and even a bit stronger than the 2021-2023 results, led by strong growth in IQOS, and even stronger growth in Zyn. The bottom line EPS is expected grow by 9%-11% annually, on a currency neutral basis. Of course, we have had nearly a decade of the hyper-strong US dollar eating up nearly all of PM's operational growth, but with expanding sales in the US, PM can at least avoid some of that.
Lastly, on the issue of IQOS in the US, CEO Okczak stated that he believes that IQOS can take 10% of current US cigarette market share within 5 years, or by around 2030, assuming ILUMA is approved as expected. That would be similar to the average time to take that level of share in most countries around the world. 

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