Might It Not Be Worthwhile / Prudent (?) . . . . | MO Message Board Posts

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Msg  13072 of 13099  at  11/3/2020 3:28:50 PM  by

Korynd


 In response to msg 13071 by  qv109
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Re: Might It Not Be Worthwhile / Prudent (?) . . . .

With MO's history of deal making, you honestly want them to do more?
 
Realistically, neither company is in a financial position to do a major deal. To finance a deal, you either have to (1) borrow money, or (2) issue more of your own stock.
 
PM has repeated over and over they will not jeopardize their current investment grade credit rating, which means they have very little room to issue any new debt for either buybacks or takeovers.
 
Likewise, MO's credit rating dropped two notches with the issuance of the debt for CRON & JUUL, and the bond market likely has little interest in them issuing more for any reasonable rate of interest either.
 
So how about stock deals? The actually make less sense. Do you really want MO to issue new MO shares that would immediately require them to pay a 9.5% annual dividend on? Or PM to pay a 6.5% dividend? It makes almost zero financial sense to do stock issuance deals when your stock is undervalued, particularly when you are a high dividend paying company.
 
Deal making is always hit or miss, much more often a miss. Instead, the typical way shareholders make good money is when a company organically grows, and ends up dominating a growing category or takes significant market share away from competitors. PM, at least, is pursuing this strategy, trying to take significant market share using IQOS, and they have already done in places like Japan. They may or may not succeed elsewhere, but if they do, they will generate much higher returns for PM shareholders at a lot less risk than overpaying to buy out competitors. But it does require some patience to see if their strategy works.


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
13073 Re: Might It Not Be Worthwhile / Prudent (?) . . . . qv109 1 11/3/2020 4:14:56 PM








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