The Universe Generated Spontaneously In 'The Big Bang' | MO Message Board Posts

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Msg  12632 of 12683  at  9/19/2019 8:07:55 PM  by

Korynd


 In response to msg 12631 by  qv109
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Re: The Universe Generated Spontaneously In 'The Big Bang'

I don't think there is anything to put back together. If you look at my early posts here, the stocks are now trading perfectly in line with that expectation.
 
To repeat, the likely scenario is for MO holders to get .57 shares of PM for every 1 MO share. If you take the current share price of PM of $71.71 times that .57, you get $40.87, pretty close to where MO now trades.
 
That merger will create a new company with 2.62 billion shares, earning a little less than $16 billion, resulting in a an EPS of a little over $6.00, or a PE of around 12 at a current price for PM of around $72. The dividend of PM will likely remain at $4.68 per share, paying out a little over $12 billion or around 75% of earnings.
 
That 12 PE and a $72 share price is probably the new normal that PM will get for now, given their merger with a US division with significant volume questions, as well as uncertain international growth given the e-vapor regulatory environment and competition.
 
If the merger would fall apart, MO will probably fall even further below $40 per share, as the fact they are even considering such a merger now, indicates previous unknown fear/desperation about its future from management.
 
As I said from the start, without substantial increases in debt/leverage, a pure equity merger is a strong signal to the market that the merger is to offset weaknesses, not create strengths. That weakness, predominantly in MO, has now been logically priced into the shares which are trading pretty much on an as-if merged basis.  


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
12633 Re: The Universe Generated Spontaneously In 'The Big Bang' qv109 1 9/19/2019 8:43:21 PM


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