Likewise, my last post on this.
1) Juul had 70% of the market. How much of that 70% is teens?
Well, of course no one really knows this. It is illegal to sell JUUL to anyone under 18 in the US. Yet of course they get their hands on it, often after being bought by friends of theirs that are 18 or older. The reported rates of teen use are determined via surveys and polls, not from purchase data. Regardless of who is using it, JUUL has captured in excess of 70% of all e-vapor products now being sold.
So how many customers is that? MO presented a slide at their shareholders meeting last month which showed that in March 2019, 13.1 million Americans had used e-vapor products in the past 30 days. That number clearly indicates a lot of adult users too. The interesting thing about that chart, is this number is actually still lower than the peak reached in 2014 of 15.1 million e-vapor users. Of course in 2014, it was a bunch of new companies all chasing a new technology. In 2016, after consumer dissatisfaction with the existing products, e-vapor use bottomed out at 9 million users. Then, fueled by the introduction of pods and nicotine salts by JUUL, e-vapor has resumed growth to reach its current level of 13.1 million users. But unlike the past when e-vapor sales were fragmented among dozens of competitors, today JUUL is dominating the sales. So regardless of the breakdown of adults/teens, owning in excess of 70% of that market is a lot of sales.
Lastly, I am not sure what your question about teen use was getting at anyway. Of course underage usage has been a big negative when it comes to government scrutiny and public health. But from a purely economic standpoint, teen users are no different than adult users; they are both buying your product. And in fact, although it is illegal for companies to target them when it comes to nicotine products, they represent the most coveted demographic since they tend to develop brand loyalty and keep using your product for much longer.
And let's be real here. Say the US raises the minimum age limit for cigarettes and e-cigs to 21 this year, which seems likely. Do you honestly believe that people 18-20 that already have a nicotine habit (whether cigarettes or e-cigs) are going to quit immediately until they once again reach the legal age of 21? The ugly truth is that no matter how JUUL got their underage users, intentional or unintentional, most are now likely to remain with them regardless of what laws are passed, barring some complete ban of the product.