Great find, thanks for sharing. Mid-40s for VLCC rates by summer...strong Q4 expected as well. Aging VLCC fleet. A lot of optimism in those CEOs.
Fuel oil, natgas to oil switching for electricity generation. So far demand increase is Americas and Europe, not Asia. But expect Asia to have increased demand into Q4. Oil/diesel is cheapest energy source you can get right now, different now than past 10 years.
Historically Japan could increase consumption 1Mbd in winter. China built inventories last year, drawing down now. They have been buying from Iran, but that is maxxed out because that oil can only go to teapot refineries as larger refineries have assets in US vulnerable to sanctions.
"Ghost" fleet of 55-60 ships - old, not insured, not maintained - being used now to get around sanctions for shipping Iran, etc. When the sanctions end, those ships will not come back - they are too old to pass regulatory muster - will be scrapped (high steel prices) and all those cargoes will add demand to existing VLCC fleet. Tailwind.
Newbuilds are increasingly scarce, expensive for a variety of macro issues. Supply is set until 2024. Yards are building container ships, not VLCCs. Financing not available anyway. ESG.