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Re: Ot math question helpThe issue with the Monty Hall problem is that it's often phrased as a rhetorical trick, rather than a math problem. Consider, CASE 1: Monty the "Trickster" only opens a door with a goat, if he knows you picked the winning door. He's trying to talk you off your car! Switch ODDS: 0 CASE 2: Monty the "Uninformed Participant", randomly opens a door, which happens to be a goat, and then offers a switch. Switch ODDS: 1/2 (Stay also 1/2) CASE 3: Monty the "Knowledgeable Rule-Bound Host" knows which door has a car and is obliged to open a door with a goat, thereby conveying important information about conditional probability. Switch ODDS: 2/3 CASE 4: Monty the "Inside Job" opens a door only if he knows you picked a loser. He's trying to help you get a car! SWITCH ODDS: 1 A lot of mathematically inclined people assume they are solving CASE 2, because the conditional rules that Monty Hall is operating under aren't stated. And some ordinary people think they are solving CASE 1, because that is the sort of salesman they are used to dealing with. That leads to the endowment effect, where they prefer to stand pat with their initial 1/3 odds (pre-conditional), out of fear they are being tricked. Note: There's also a CASE 2b, where Monty randomly opens the door with the car, and drives off the set laughing! |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
450400 | Re: Ot math question help | W | 5 | 5/24/2020 6:12:36 PM |