Nassim Taleb Says Coronavirus Pandemic is Not a 'Black Swan' | BAK Message Board Posts


BAK   /  Message Board  /  Read Message

 

 






Keyword
Subject
Between
and
Rec'd By
Authored By
Minimum Recs
  
Previous Message  Next Message    Post Message    Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board
Msg  446426 of 492958  at  4/17/2020 12:06:36 PM  by

hydono


Nassim Taleb Says Coronavirus Pandemic is Not a 'Black Swan'

https://ihodl.com/opinion/2020-04-01/nassim-taleb-says-coronavirus-pandemic-not-black-swan/
 

Nassim Taleb Says Coronavirus Pandemic is Not a 'Black Swan'

Shutterstock


Lebanese-American essayist, scholar, statistician, and former option trader and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb has introduced in 2007 the definition of the black swan, a theory considering difficult to predict and rare events that have significant consequences.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Taleb said that the coronavirus pandemic was predictable, so it cannot be put on a par with the September 11 attacks and be considered as a "black swan."

"We issued our warning that effectively you should kill it in the egg. If you can act very quickly," Taleb emphasized.

Taleb said that people simply ignored this warning — the exception was the Donald Trump administration, which limited air traffic to China at an early stage to the spread of coronavirus.

Taleb said:

"[I am] so irritated that people would say it is a 'black swan'."

The real "black swan," according to Taleb, is the events of September 11th.

The coronavirus pandemic was predictable, which means it is a "white swan."

The "white swans" are financial crises that happen not spontaneously, but naturally.

As Taleb stated, since the pandemic was predictable, businesses and governments around the world have no excuses for such a low level of preparation for the spread of the virus:

"They [governments] did not want to spend pennies in January. Now they are going to spend trillions."

According to Taleb, the further course of events is unpredictable, so companies should not rush and return their employees to work, even if the authorities order them. He stressed that in the current situation, the fate of employees should be decided by the heads of companies, not countries.



     e-mail to a friend      printer-friendly     add to library      
|  
Recs: 4  
   Views: 112 []
Previous Message  Next Message    Post Message    Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board

Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
446449 Re: Nassim Taleb Says Coronavirus Pandemic is Not a 'Black Swan' myhorse 2 4/17/2020 2:51:46 PM




Financial Market Data provided by
.
Loading...