Re: The next Covid-19 hotspots
Don't be so sure the problem lies with the models. Apparently the modelers themselves are scratching their heads with the way results are being floated
Thanks for a wonderful article. I think the problem is the data. I looked at the UW model and once I read that the model is based on China data, I moved on. Chinese has been faking their Covid-19 data since day 1. The initial issue was there is not enough test, so a lot of mild and no symptom patients are never tested. Later when they are overwhelmed, the death patients also were not tested. And as time go on, every province messaged their data since the officials are graded based on how well they managed the outbreak, then eventually when Xi decided that they need to restart the economy, every province except Hubei report 0 case of new infection... now US intelligence believed that China faked their data and do’s is UK. Our testing data is incomplete as well..
for investing purpose, all We need to figure out is whether a few of the states will have ICU crash and burn and overwhelmed by onslaught of sick patients. And that is a very easy conclusion to draw base on the lateness of the shutdown and lack of preparation on getting medical supply... we have plenty of states in the same boat and so is our Federal government... New Orlean ICU may crash in the next couple weeks. They said they will be out of ventilator by the 4th. They will get shipment from FEMA but probably not faster enough to handle the new load of patients is my guess (and nurse, doctor, mask.. all the things that Cuomo and Newsom has been preparing for since early March. Louisiana governor has done nothing along that line until last week when there is already nothing on the market, I think...