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Some COVID-19 numbersI went back to the virus tracker and grabbed the following numbers for the last three weeks, on confirmed cases OUTSIDE China: 1/30 141 2/06 265 2/13 538 2/20 1200 It was only a few days ago I suggested the non-China cases would be somewhere between 1000 and 10000+ by late March. My unstated implication is that <1000 cases by late March, and the virus is going to die out, for sure. Above 10,000 by late March, and a global pandemic is odds on likely. In between 1000 and 10000, there is still a containment fight worth fighting. The data still show, with remarkable consistency, a doubling every week. Yes, the Diamond Princess is over half the total, and accounts for much of the overshoot this week. Yes, I think quarantines will slow the doubling period a bit despite no evidence of that so far. But I think banking on 15 successful quarantines in the US is blind beyond belief. This virus is highly infectious, and is spreading based on virulent super spreaders. It's also much easier to quarantine people based on travel history, if the virus is contained in some far off land. If the virus hits a traveler in Manhattan, do we quarantine everyone with a Manhattan travel history? That's the Wuhan solution. Barricade the bridges and tunnels, and wait a few months... That's also what S Korea, Japan, and Iran are about to confront. We have just under 6 weeks until April. At the current pace, there will be around 75,000 cases outside China by then. Only if the doubling period is extended to 14 or more days, can we stay below 10,000 cases by April. That means the quarantines need to be twice as effective as they are today, even while losing the current benefit of quarantining people from "far off lands". Now convince me I'm wrong. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
437381 | Re: Some COVID-19 numbers | W | 0 | 2/20/2020 9:37:13 PM |
437383 | Re: Some COVID-19 numbers | batman10023 | 0 | 2/20/2020 10:35:52 PM |
437384 | Re: Some COVID-19 numbers | zzebraa | 3 | 2/21/2020 12:44:29 AM |
438498 | Re: Some COVID-19 numbers | stockmonger | 1 | 3/4/2020 3:03:16 PM |