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Re: nwliwhile there are no catalysts and my track record lately has been quite horrific NWLI might be worth putting on the radar screen again. It's getting cheap again on a P/B at .53x and it kind of bottoms around these levels. the negatives are as usual mr. moody is still above ground and it's family owned and insurance is a tough business. but the positives are that the son has taken full control over the company. He finally has done something on the capital allocation side by buying another business. They have resolved the lawsuit in brazil and have stopped writing new business in brazil and the other foreign markets. this won't be a home run but i am looking for 330 by the end of the year - that's around .6x book value of 550 (in YE 2019). at 280 it's a reasonable idea, at 250 it's a great idea. BAK / Message Board / Post Message Original Message (# 394061) by batman10023 on 10/4/2017 11:19:46 AM Collapse Original Message Re: nwli For what it's worth (not much), i have exited almost all of my NWLI position. The stock was extremely cheap about a year ago sub 200. I have exited my position over the past year but waited for LTCG on the majority of my shares. this is pretty much a valuation call - we are finding it difficult to see how they can generate above 7% ROE without another bump up in rates. Price to book has crept up to the highest level in many years and the P/E is also high. i'd start to look back at this name if mr. moody dies, rates go up meaningfuly from here (50 bps on 10 year) or the price drops back into the 275 range. if it drops back to 225 (approximately same p/b as a year ago), i'd probably make it my second biggest position again. i hope folks were able to make some money on the idea. Original Message (# 376390) by batman10023 on 10/12/2016 10:05:19 AM Collapse Original Message Re: nwli i increased my NWLI position over the last month. below 200 the stock seems cheap. at 190 it's extremely cheap and pricing in low rates for a long time. i doubt the stock works until the 10 year breaks over 2% but it's still cheap. wouldn't buy it here, wait for below 200. it's my second biggest position now (ignoring cash which is by far the biggest). |
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