Hey i would be thrilled if 200-300 shale rigs could produce 4MM barrels a year :)
A little over 6 years ago Haynesville had 250 rigs and 4 BCF/day. Today with only 50 rigs they are at 7 BCF/day. And growing.
Haynesville's post-crisis rig count peaked in early 2010, but the decline didn't really hit until July. Production at that time was 7 BCF/day. Production peaked at more than 10 BCF/day in late 2011, more than a year later, after rig count had fallen almost 50%.
Let me repeat: production grew ~45% while rig count plummeted 50%.
Even more shocking - production was still at 10 BCF/day in July/August of 2012 as rig count was bottoming at ~50. So rigs fell over 75% and production was still up over 40%.
Production did finally decline in earnest after mid-2012, but it never really dipped below the mid-2010 level. Oil is not gas and the Big 3 are not Haynesville, but it's still interesting. Also note Marcellus saw a quick 30% drop in rigs from late 2011 through mid-2012. Even with fewer rigs production kept climbing, and it continues to do so to this day.
(Haynesville and Marcellus numbers picked off the charts at: