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Msg  329838 of 469465  at  2/1/2015 8:56:07 PM  by


 In response to msg 329834 by  x
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Re: Drill Baby Drill!

"which includes completion deferrals into the second half of 2015."

Completion deferrals are real, and seem to be spreading. I don't see them as particularly bullish, though. It's kind of like stockpilers playing the contango - bbls disappear today but reappear later this year. It affects the timing but not the mid-term supply/demand. Both strategies are signs that the spot market glut is pretty severe.
How did we suddenly get to the point where millions of bbls can flow into huge storage tanks without driving spot prices up? Those aren't "paper barrels" sitting in giant tanks at Cushing. The oversupply is real. I know shale grew last year, but it grew several years before that, too. I know Chinese growth slowed, but it's still growth. This isn't 2008 when demand dropped 3m bpd virtually overnight and the oil started piling up. What the heck happened?
Some possibilities:
1. China has REALLY slowed and not told anyone
2. Saudis secretly increased output
3. Oversupply grew gradually but was hidden by Libya shutdown and other factors
4. Growing oversupply during 2014 hidden by supply chain holding bbls back "until OPEC cuts in 10/14"

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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
329839 Re: Drill Baby Drill! x 0 2/1/2015 9:19:24 PM

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