Re: Oil
When we try to model future oil supply using decline rates and funds flow, capex etc I never see any notice given to the HUGE ELEPHANT in the room (for me anyways) which is an Iran Nuclear deal coming about quickly like a black swan for the oil market.
I think Obama, the europeans and Iran were very close to a deal a month ago. They almost had a deal. Obama and Kerry really want a deal for their legacy, but I think Iran needs and wants a deal even more badly. A deal could could happen suddenly (in the next few months)with little warning like the recent Cuba deal. This could make a the bottom in oil we see forming today a false bottom and all oil equity purchases traps with a lot of pain for holders.
I have read that Iran has 1.2 million bopd that they could and would bring onto the market very quickly. They could also bring on more production over time if sanctions were lifted which would contribute a very negative bias towards oil futures going forward.
So, for me anyways right now is one of those times where maybe you don't have to swing at every piitch. Other than the possible Iran production coming onto market this oil crash pitch looks like a pretty fat pitch otherwise and it is hard not to buy something.
I keep going back and forth on this issue and have bought a couple of very small positions only to sell them 24-48 hours later due to fear of this being a false bottom in the oil market.