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Tractor Supply is in for a bad harvest today despite great results in its Q2 earnings report
Tractor Supply is in for a bad harvest today despite great results in its Q2 earnings report
Briefing.com
Tractor Supply (TSCO -6%) is in for a bad harvest today despite posting great results in its Q2 earnings report. The retail supplier of light farming equipment and other home improvement products beat on earnings and revenues and raised its FY21 EPS, revenue, and comps guidance. These results also marked its fifth straight quarter of double-digit revenue growth and its second straight quarter of double-digit EPS beats.
So why is TSCO stuck in the mud today?
In our view, we think it has less to do with concerns about its earnings report than with other circumstances. TSCO is more a victim of an overall market selloff this morning on concerns about rising COVID cases, primarily brought on by the Delta variant. With news about Olympic athletes testing positive for the virus and the UK's Prime Minister going into self-quarantine after exposure, investors are uneasy about the start to Q2 earnings season, and TSCO's impressive earnings result is not enough to curb this uneasiness. Diving into Q2 earnings, TSCO posted adjusted earnings of $3.19 per share, beating the consensus by $0.22. Even more impressively, revenue grew 13.4% yr/yr to $3.6 bln despite lapping a quarter last year that saw 34.9% revenue growth. TSCO has yet to experience negative revenue growth even during the pandemic, which we think is important to note if COVID cases begin to tick up. Comp sales also jumped +10.5%. We think TSCO falls into the brick-and-mortar category that Amazon (AMZN) has found difficult to capture market share from, given the type of products it sells. Stores such as TSCO, Home Depot (HD), and Lowe's (LOW) have proven that customers prefer to purchase light farming equipment, home improvement, and garden maintenance products in person. Consumers' in-person preference does not mean that TSCO has not also been improving its e-commerce offerings. TSCO's e-commerce sales saw triple-digit percentage growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. Its mobile app, launched less than a year ago, already makes up over 10% of total e-commerce sales. Looking ahead, TSCO raised its revenue guidance to $12.1-12.3 bln, up from its previous guidance issued last quarter of $11.4-11.7 bln. It also sees comp growth at +11-13%, up from +5-8%. Lastly, TSCO raised its EPS guidance to $7.70-8.00, up from $7.05-7.40. Revenue and EPS guidance are well above the consensus, even at the lower end of each range.
Bottom line, the market-wide selloff is hurting the stock's performance following an otherwise excellent earnings report from TSCO. With concerns surrounding the Delta variant rising, investors may be thinking that TSCO could experience more challenges if the country reverts to any sort of lockdown environment. However, given its robust revenue growth during FY20, we do not think this will lead to decreased guidance, especially given TSCO's product portfolio. With 47% of revenue from its Livestock and Pet segment and 21% from its Hardware, Tools, and Truck segment, the company may find that even as COVID cases begin to rise, its defensive products should provide a cushion against any potential recession.