While we see eye to eye on several things....you seem to discount the $10M revenue decrease that Rambus has to overcome due to the temporarily lower payments from Hynix.....thus this one-year (temporary) impact (which rebounds fully in 2020)….
First, my understanding from the 3Q earnings conference call (and other subsequent conference calls) is the Hynix decrease in 2019 would be about $16M ($4M/qtr), not $10M, but lets assume your $10M number is correct.
In light of that, I thought the CFO’s story line (i.e. spin) from the earnings conference call, and then the subsequent Credit Suisse conference call (11/28/18), was that the INCREASE in 2019 data buffer revenue would essentially OFFSET the Hynix $10M (or $16m) decrease?
Isn’t that correct?
And didn’t the CFO say in the Credit Suisse conference call that the data buffer revenue in 2019 would increase from about $21-$22M in 2017 (about a 2x miss in 2017) to $35M to $40M in 2018, to $50M to $70M in 2019.
I am no math wiz, but assuming Rambus reaches the maximum of $40M in 2018 (but I expect flat growth in Q4 data buffer revenue equating to about $36M to $37M in 2018), that would be a minimum increase of about $13M in data buffers in 2019, possibly going as high as $33M.
So wouldn’t that OFFSET the Hynix debacle in 2019?
And as I pointed out previously, Rambus has made these four REVENUE RELATED press releases since the last earnings conference call, including Micron Authena, and including what I posted today in regards to Nvidia going into PRODUCTION using a Rambus GDDR6 memory controller.
So WHY is 2019 revenue going to be FLAT?
Are we not being told the full story or is this some kind of Jedi Mind Trick?