Sabatino, thanks for posting Rambus’s latest investor
presentation update.
On page 8, in reference to the Data Center and DIMM Chipset
Ecosystem slide, Rambus is now apparently saying the “Chips” SAM in 2018 is
approximately $600M? If I understand this correctly, that would be a
significant increase from the $300M they have been characterizing the Data
Buffer business as being in prior analyst conferences.
Given that Rambus’s revenue goal in 2018 for the Data Buffer
business is apparently $40M, then that would equate to a market share of about 7%
if the SAM has actually grown to approximately $600M.
In addition, I think it is also worth noting on page 30 that
Rambus is saying they have DDR4 DB and RCD chips at speeds up to 3200, available
in
production, which implies (imo) that LRDIMM is also included. As I have pointed out in the past, so far Intel
is not showing Rambus validation for LRDIMM at 2666 but perhaps this foil implies
that validation will be forthcoming in the near future at the 3200 node.
Something to keep an eye on imo.
In regards to RSD, it appears Rambus has modified the SAM
foil on page 12. In the past, IoT Provisioning was shown as a separate category
but now it shows a category of IoT Security. So does that mean IoT provisioning
is now just a subset IoT Security? What
is the definition of IoT Security?
Bottom line –The only true measure will be actual revenue. Everything else is just smoke and mirrors with
those wide open SAM categories in my opinion.