The analysts' reactions and targets from the GTC mtg; I'll try to record them here | NVDA Message Board Posts


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Msg  40021 of 40036  at  9/22/2022 9:22:15 AM  by

delt1970


 In response to msg 40020 by  delt1970
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Re: The analysts' reactions and targets from the GTC mtg; I'll try to record them here

Credit Suisse:

GTC keynote kicks off the next product cycle. NVIDIAs GTC keynote kicked off its
upcoming product cycle, highlighting 1) Ada Lovelace upgraded GPU moving from 8nm to
4nm with upgraded features (DLSS3.0, SER instructions, new tensor/RT cores/streaming
multi-processors) for gaming, workstation and Omniverse, 2) data center AI seeing
upgrade with Hopper H100 GPU in production and Grace Hopper CPU-GPU AI HPC
system ramping in 1H23 along with Orin Edge compute for automated vehicles, robotics,
industrial edge and medical, and 3) Thor upgrade likely to 4nm in 2024 for next upgrade.

NVIDIA cleaning house to ready the channel. NVIDIA noted sharp draw down include
efforts to clear inventory of prior generation high-end Ampere GPUs for enthusiasts, with F3Q (Oct) guided to US$1.3bn gaming run-rate vs. its July estimate for US$2.5bn gaming sell-through albeit possibly even softer due to macro but still implying low base with shipments below consumption. New products for gaming should start to help stabilize F4Q (Jan) and drive normalization back to US$2.5bn by mid-2023, with data center benefiting from refresh alongside Sapphire Rapids by 2Q.

New products reset up pricing at similar profitability. NVIDIA is setting launch price
about US$100-200 over prior 3080/3090 series to reflect higher costs with move from
Samsung 8nm to TSMC 4nm also in an inflationary wafer price environment the past two
years. The company views much higher 2-4x performance enabling it to price accordingly
to earn similar GMs, targeting return toward its 65-67% GM range before the write-down.

LT opportunities still provide optionality. We still view NVIDIAs TAM expansion as the killer-app incubator for AI w/Omniverse, Digital Twins, ADAS,
Recommendation/Language Engines, and Robotics.

We maintain FY23/24 at $3.40/$4.80 vs. Street of $4.03/$5.34 and FY25 at $6.00. We stay Outperform w/$205 TP (43x in-line with 3-yr avg. P/E of 43x CY23 EPS, reflecting its LT TAM penetration. Catalysts include the gaming rebound from a low base with new products, upcoming data center launch and milestones on Omniverse and robotics traction.


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
40022 Re: The analysts' reactions and targets from the GTC mtg; I'll try to record them here delt1970 0 10/18/2022 5:54:39 PM




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