Re: The analysts' reactions and targets from the GTC mtg; I'll try to record them here
Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation
We believe NVIDIA continues to execute across all segments.
While 1H is typically seasonally weaker than 2H, we expect
solid demand in PC gaming to be a strong revenue driver for
the company, offsetting PC OEM, which is in secular decline.
We expect the data center segment to grow strongly as
hyperscale customers continue to embrace GPU-accelerated
deep learning for processing large data sets. We are
encouraged by strength in the automotive and enterprise
segments as well, although strong adoption of autonomous
driving in the market remains to be seen. We anticipate
significant upside in the shares, driving our Overweight rating.
Our December 2023 price target of $220 assumes that
NVIDIA trades at 28-32x applied to $8.5 of earnings power in
CY25, discounted back to CY23 assuming a 12% discount
rate. Our outlook of $8 of earnings power assumes the team
will be monetizing an incremental ~$11B of auto revenue
pipeline and an incremental $3B of software, licensing, and
subscription revenues over the next 4-5 years. With our view
of significant upside potential in shares, we are Overweight