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Re: Analysts HelpingElagolix truly stinks. I'm really surprised. Valebenezine for HC matters (results year-end; approval within what 9-12 months thereafter...or sooner because of already approved drug?). The two new indications are potentially big deals. Might be looking at 24 months I suppose for those. CAH is a big deal at this point. Results in 1H '22. That moves the needle. Opicapone will come online with insurers next year if I understand. That will help, but I'm not sure it's a world-beater. The heart of their pipeline (PIIs) is interesting. However, it's all partnered. Who would have thought that the company's expertise would be partnering and sales? Their ability to bring drugs to market themselves has waned. New CRF programs or other PI's are unknown. Looking at all this, over the next 3 quarters, the question gets focused on Valebenezine: can they restore 30% growth? I've looked at the numbers. It's hard to see. Q3 will tell the tale I think. The change in market behavior -- psychiatrists working remote -- seems to be a lasting headwind. I also am really starting to wonder about the rhetoric about a "huge, untapped market" remaining. I wonder what that really means. I still own a ton of this stock. I can't say I regret not selling. I know the company. I know the risks. My alternatives would have been much higher risk probably. Still, if I worked at a hedge fund, I'd be on the hot seat. |
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