Whenever that disappointing feeling of a failed drug and recognition of a price decline hits, it buries the reality that the outcome is a bummer for people who really need the help. Once the dust settles, I recognize a different disappointment. Clinically (practically), this result is sad.
That aside, I've been thinking about what I'm about to say for some time, so it's not a reaction to this news. However, it is a bit of an insult to injury.
NBIX is not particularly impressive at bringing drugs to market and monetizing them. How can you say that?! They hit a home run with Ingrezza, no doubt, and they did it in-house. However, what have they done since? They developed Elagolix, but it's, so far, a market bust. They in-licensed Opicapone, but even if successful, it's no world-beater. They have a stream of failed drugs developed in-house - a long list. CAH offers some hope, maybe, but competitive rumblings make you wonder. Also, their in-licensing efforts have, to date, been lackluster at best. Can you say Indiplon?
I've really been underwhelmed by the company for several years and when that feeling causes me to think harder about what I see, I'm not impressed. I don't think I'm being reactive. I'm just not impressed. I hope Kevin sees this note because I can't believe he's impressed either. And the rhetoric about how hard it is and the probability of failed drugs is all fine and good. I'm still not impressed.
[Edit: To put a fine point on it, what I see is a grab bag of products and potential products under an umbrella strategy grounded in markets. What I don't see is something that makes them special, for instance, something they are truly excellent at or some technology that makes them unique or gives them a competitive advantage.]
I doubt this price fall with last, but the market will likely use it as an opportunity to push down the price because they can.
I say all this owning A LOT of shares. I'm not interested in beating up the company.