RBC CELG: Otezla TRx 4063, -3% wk/wk (+29% QTD vs cons +48% US); NRx is 1934, -1% wk/wk | CELG Message Board Posts


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Msg  198447 of 226566  at  6/26/2015 1:28:10 PM  by

Rob Cos


RBC CELG: Otezla TRx 4063, -3% wk/wk (+29% QTD vs cons +48% US); NRx is 1934, -1% wk/wk

 

 

Event: Reporting week 12 of Q2:15 IMS scripts (ending 6/19/15)

 

BIIB: Tecfidera TRx is 8898, -6% wk/wk (+5% QTD vs cons +14% US), while "true" NRx is 397, -2% wk/wk (reported NRx is 2128, -8% wk/wk)

  • BIIB had a 5.5% price increase this past March, and management expects continued steady growth in 2015.
  • Taking into account the price increase, our Tecfidera APP predicts $726M USA for Q2:15 with +5% Q/Q and assuming slight inventory draw down, vs cons $943M. However, in our model we estimate $712M USA by assuming more conservative +3% Q/Q growth (similar to Q1:15/Q4:14 and Q4:15/Q3:15).

 

CELG: Otezla TRx 4063, -3% wk/wk (+29% QTD vs cons +48% US); NRx is 1934, -1% wk/wk

  • CELG reported Q1:15 Otezla revenues of $60M vs cons $72M. Otezla Q2:15 cons is $89M.

 

ACOR: Ampyra TRx 3736, -2% wk/wk (+5% QTD vs cons +12% US), while NRx is 785, -2% wk/wk

  • As a reminder, ACOR reported Q1 Ampyra beat of $92M vs cons $90M. Management reiterated guidance of $405-420M vs cons $413M.

 

XNPT: Horizant TRx is 2145, +3% wk/wk (+10% QTD vs cons +38% US), while NRx is 1208, +7% wk/wk

  • As a reminder, Q1 Horizant sales were $6.6M vs our $8M estimate - management cited Q1 seasonality, weather and insurance resets, although tablet counts still increased +4% Q/Q - in fact, Q1:15 TRx were tracking +3% Q/Q.

While XNPT reiterated Horizant guidance of $39-43M vs our estimate of $42M, we think this could be conservative and reach $50M run-rate with 120 salespeople



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