Reporting week 12 of Q2:15 IMS scripts (ending 6/19/15)
Tecfidera TRx is 8898, -6% wk/wk (+5% QTD vs cons +14% US), while
"true" NRx is 397, -2% wk/wk (reported NRx is 2128, -8% wk/wk)
- BIIB had a 5.5%
price increase this past March, and management expects continued steady
growth in 2015.
- Taking into
account the price increase, our Tecfidera APP predicts $726M USA for Q2:15
with +5% Q/Q and assuming slight inventory draw down, vs cons $943M.
However, in our model we estimate $712M USA by assuming more conservative
+3% Q/Q growth (similar to Q1:15/Q4:14 and Q4:15/Q3:15).
Otezla TRx 4063, -3% wk/wk (+29% QTD vs cons +48% US); NRx is 1934, -1% wk/wk
- CELG reported
Q1:15 Otezla revenues of $60M vs cons $72M. Otezla Q2:15 cons is $89M.
Ampyra TRx 3736, -2% wk/wk (+5% QTD vs cons +12% US), while NRx is 785, -2%
- As a reminder,
ACOR reported Q1 Ampyra beat of $92M vs cons $90M. Management reiterated
guidance of $405-420M vs cons $413M.
Horizant TRx is 2145, +3% wk/wk (+10% QTD vs cons +38% US), while NRx is 1208,
- As a reminder, Q1 Horizant sales were $6.6M vs our $8M
estimate - management cited Q1 seasonality, weather and insurance resets,
although tablet counts still increased +4% Q/Q - in fact, Q1:15 TRx were
tracking +3% Q/Q.
While XNPT reiterated Horizant
guidance of $39-43M vs our estimate of $42M, we think this could be
conservative and reach $50M run-rate with 120 salespeople