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Msg  35986 of 74175  at  11/5/2007 9:14:53 PM  by

briang60


Strong Buy

Why I am not worried

We have seen this bs before.  I think that most of us are just pissed that we KNEW we would get slammed again when the good LAR news was released but still just hung on.  What encourages me though is the massive effort that goes into keeping the share price down.  The crap that is pawned off as analysis is ridiculous.  Lets review a few.
 
1. One injection a day(lirg.) is much better than twice a day, however, one injection a week vs. one a day means nothing.
 
2. Patients who take Byetta have reported pancreatitis, this is very bad. Hey! But the numbers show that the incidence of pancreatitis is actually LOWER for those on Byetta than the general population of diabetics, so this should be good, right? "No, were you not listening, patients on Byetta have reported pancreatitis!"
  "But at a lower rate ,right?"
  ""All we are at liberty to disclose is that patients on Byetta have reported pancreatitis."
 
3.The time line for Exenatide Lar is highly in doubt and many delays are probable, but Lirg. will have zero delays. After all, Lirg. has no history as an approved drug and Lar is just a better version of an old already approved drug.  We view this as a positive for Lirg.
 
4. Due to the assured delays of Lar and the prompt approval of Lirg. Lar will be behind Lirg. by 6-9 months and this is a HUGE advantage, however, the 3+ year head start of Byetta bid over Lirg.  is of no consequence.
 
5. Exenatide Lar ONLY reduced A1C by 1.9% as compared to Byetta BID of 1.5%. We really needed the difference to be much larger. After all, 25% of patients on Lar FAILED to reach the 7% goal of the ADA.
  "But 75% reached the goal, no treatment has ever had that % reach 7% or below."
  "We prefer to state that 25% FAILED to reach the 7% goal."
 
I am sure there are more examples and I am also sure that some of my examples may not be completely accurate, but you get the general idea.  Someone really wants to keep the price down and our shares.  Mine still are not for sale.  I have the long term view. I still think the science and the best therapy will win out.
 
Brian
 
 


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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
35988 Re: Why I am not worried [Brian] warsurplus 11 11/5/2007 9:41:58 PM
36004 Re: Why I am not worried creaturecomphort 10 11/6/2007 9:54:37 AM
36016 Re: Why I am not worried - Brian & others zino 3 11/6/2007 11:45:17 AM
36019 Re: Why I am not worried grogory 1 11/6/2007 12:44:44 PM


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