In Review... Walk .. river .. handy | INSM Message Board Posts

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Msg  49457 of 50221  at  1/20/2020 9:18:00 PM  by


 In response to msg 49445 by  LTHandy
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Re: In Review... Walk .. river .. handy

Yea small cap Bios can be volatile, high risk high reward. And movement in pps can be considerable. However IMO to put things into perspective you cannot just look at price per share movement. IMO to compare one Bio to another would be an extremely difficult task due to the extreme number of variables, talk about a multivariate equation with many unknowns hmmm.. There are many variables to take into consideration. For straight up technical, I prefer percent change over some time frame, but then news is involved also. So if one is going to fairly try to technically evaluate and compare one small cap bio to another based upon performance. It is best to use some way to equalize volatility in each then compare. I like percent change based upon a time function. Then you can begin to partially compare one company to another technically. But that is one very small part of the equation.

To just say miles is meaningless, to say MPH or MPG, now you have attached meaning to miles. In the case of MPG one can fairly compare 2 different vehicle gas mileages.

In the case with small cap Bios some areas will have higher swings than others based upon what their drug is all about/ target market, price of product, sometimes tied to cost of development.. Hype around the drug. As an example Oncology and cancer drugs will perform differently as compared to other small cap Bios, say niche orphan drugs.

I prefer to compare the stock I am evaluating to itself, removes many variables. Percent change per time frame. I have went thru a 10 year chart of INSM using monthly intervals. Then divide by the number of months per time frame, gives me a percent change per month, (kinda like standardizing time frames). I did this based up throughs and peaks, (just like ocean waves).
Going back to 2011 – 2012 time frame where INSM based for about 1 year around approx.. 2.50 – 3.0. To present, strictly looking at major tops and bottoms. I will call these waves to make visualization easier.

Wave 1 Up 49 % / month
Wave 2 Down 5.6 % / month
Wave 3 Up 16 % / month
Wave 4 Down 11 % / month
Wave 5 Up 12 % / month
Wave 6 Down 10 % / month
Wave 7 Up 33 % / month
Wave 8 Down 6 % / month
Wave 9 Up 46.75 % / month
Wave 10 Down 18 % / month, most recent wave

If you were to do the same for another Bio. How do they compare? And think of all the other factors involved, mind boggling. I take note that the most recent wave, wave 9 has the greatest % change to the downside since 2011. A change in the normal of approx. 6 – 11 % range. What does it say or suggest.

And in INSM’s case how many other Bios for how many months has had more shares owned by Insty’s than exist. Last time I checked Insty ownership was / is 112.68 %. How does that compare to other Bios. To me just too many things to do a straight Bio to Bio comparison.

How to Identify Great CEOs: A 5-Point Checklist

1)Track Record
2)Insider Ownership
3)Long-term Approach
4)Empire Building vs Maximizing Shareholder Returns
5)Personality and Qualitative Assessment

Link ;

To each his own.

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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
49458 Re: In Review... Walk .. river .. handy LTHandy 1 1/20/2020 9:57:18 PM

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