Key Takeaway We hosted AMRN, TXMD, and VNDA during our annual London HC Conference. Management teams took the opportunity to review progress, give updates, and share what's on the horizon for their respective companies. We highlight key takeaways and top-of-mind issues for investors in our summaries. AMRN (Buy $7 PT) CEO Thero: “Positive REDUCE-IT data could lead to a paradigm shift for treating elevated triglycerides.” 2017 has been a year of broad progress including: strong scrips/revenue growth, additions of key senior executives, a licensing agreement with HLS Therapeutics in Canada, and conclusion of REDUCE-IT enrollment. While there is broad evidence to suggest Vascepa could succeed in reducing residual CV risk in REDUCE-IT (epidemiologic, genetic, & various clinical data), AMRN’s enthusiasm has grown following positive CANTOS data & recent real-world claims database analyses at the AHA Meeting. CANTOS validated that reducing elevated hsCRP correlates with improved CV outcomes. Recall Vascepa reduced hsCRP in MARINE & ANCHOR by 36% and 22%, comparable reductions to TG lowering in both studies. At the AHA Meeting a Kaiser Permanente analysis demonstrated that ASCVD events were greater in statin-controlled ASCVD & high TG (n=2,361) vs. normal TG (n=14,454). A separate analysis in patients on statins with high TGs and with ASCVD or diabetes plus other CV risk factors (n=10,990 in both cohorts) demonstrated patients had an increased risk for CV events & higher HC costs. While these studies are retrospective and did not include Vascepa, they provide further evidence that lowering elevated TG could correlate with lower CV risk.
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