Obviously not a lot of interest in this board right now but, if this rumor has any legs at all, there soon will be. I have been watching Adobe for some time looking for an entry point and this could well be it. At 38.05 it may be time to "buy the rumor." We'll see...
What I DO see happening is Apple buying Adobe, which
would give it effective dominance of digital content creation and
distribution on a global scale. Bruce Chizen suddenly stepped down as
Adobe’s CEO without warning: why? A caretaker CEO (my characterization
— no slight intended) is in place. Steve has always viewed Adobe
co-founder and co-chair John Warnock like a father. Warnock and
co-chair Chuck Geschke are losing interest in Adobe day-to-day as they
move on with their lives. Acquiring Adobe would make Apple much more of
a cross-platform company. The combined professional applications could
be placed in the Adobe division of Apple where they could go up in
price for some markets, becoming VASTLY more profitable. But most
important — keeping in mind the whole purpose here is driving content
distribution — merging Flash and QuickTime would make any other video
standards (like Windows Media) simply immaterial.
If such an acquisition were to take place it would have to be in
2008 while Avid and Microsoft still present credible competition to
keep the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission from
opposing such a merger. It would go easier, too, on W’s watch. I knew
he was good for something.
has more than $15 billion in cash and no debt, and Abode’s current
market cap is about $22 billion. Jobs does have a lot of history with
Adobe– Abode PostScript and PhotoShop were critical to the success of
the Mac. A union might make sense on a whiteboard, but it’s hard to
imagine Steve Jobs acquiring something that could be a major management distraction
from the relative simplicity that Apple is now–Mac, iPhone, iPod,
iLife. On the other hand, iAcrobat, iFlash and iPhotoshop could fit in
with where Jobs wants to take Apple. It depends on whether he has the
appetite for another reincarnation of his company.