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Msg  28882 of 30240  at  1/22/2021 2:34:37 AM  by

robry825


COVID-19 Statistics (Commentary and Statistical Overview)

..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................


CAUSATION (11/17/21:) When arctic air pours in, we get slammed 16 or 17 days later in confirmed cases, 28 days later in
deaths. Backlogs grow in the labs doing the testing, hospitals soon fill, mortality worsens. Then when the arctic air leaves,
the whole pattern reverses.

Arctic air causes outdoor temperatures to plummet, in turn driving relative humidity down, which dry's out a persons mucus
membranes, which allows COVID-19 (harbored in the mucus) into the human host and the human host becomes infected.
The mucus serves as a reservoir where COVID-19 accumulates and dwells, waiting for such a "drying event" to let it in.

The tell is in the correlation between deaths and heating degree-days. The modeling tells us the lag (in resultant deaths) to
heating degree days is one day greater than the lag between exposure and deaths. That tells us two things: 1) causation
is established, and 2) the inferred drying-event centers roughly on a 24 hour lag, meaning the drying event needs to be
(at a minimum) about 24 hours long to dry out the sinuses sufficiently to allow COVID-19 in. Theoretically then we can imply
the longer the drying event, the greater the impact, the more COVID-19 penetrates, the higher the initial viral dosage is, and
the greater the likely-hood of a fatal outcome four weeks later for those exposed in the drying event.

This is true for COVID-19. This is probably also true (in general) for the common cold, influenza, and a broad variety of
pathogens. This is probably the reason for seasonality in infectious disease. Mucus must be dried for optimal infectibility,
and as a prerequisite to infection.

This reinforces the notion of detoxifying the mucus, either by medication (ie Ivermectin) or by simple sprays or swabbing
(saline solution, hydrogen peroxide, isopropyl alcohol, etc) to sterilize the mucus... ridding it of what might be within, lying
in wait. Based upon this, such means of detoxification are strongly suggested.

On Ivermectin, I like the story mostly, but they are tinkering with mega-doses a hundred fold times guidelines, on the theory
that building up ivermectin in the blood will kill the virus within the body. I would not go that far, but as Ivermectin (I am led
to understand) dwells deep within the mucus membranes (where no swabbing or spraying can reach)... I would think that
Ivermectin (on by-the-book dosage) might be an interesting preventative study, within the mucus, when taken starting right
before winter's biggest arctic outbreaks.

As always, I want to emphasize that I am not a virology person, I am a statistics person passing along statistical clues to
those who might find them to be of benefit. My background is energy, natural gas, economics, climate. I moved into COVID-19
as other's did, out of curiosity as to what statistical examination might lend to the discussion about COVID-19, and out of the
realization last spring of just how dire COVID-19 could become.



19,240,000 US VACCINE DOSES ARE GATHERING DUST (01/15/21): And at least 4,230,000 now have
10 days worth of dust (assuming FIFO). To date, 63%, nearly two-thirds of all vaccine doses delivered to
the states in 2020 and 2021, have not been used. They are just sitting on shelves.

Negligence begets negligence. Those not diligent enough to effectively distribute will not be diligent enough
to effectively manage. Doses will be lost. Doses will be dropped, spilled, or just plain disappear.
It is not just that doses are sitting. It is the wrong people are managing them. Another of many, many tactical
mistakes as COVID-19 overruns the US.



...........................................Relationship of Degree-Days, Confirmed Cases, and Deaths
=================================================================================
..Day Before
....Exposure...........Related..............Related.....................Related
......Heating............Date Of...........Subsequent.............Subsequent
..Degree-Days.....Exposure....Confirmed Cases..............Deaths
===========....=======...==============...=============
12/14/20...26.0........................12/29/20...196,174r....01/11/21...[2,006].....\..
12/15/20...28.7...........................................................01/12/21....4,462.......\.
12/16/20...28.6........................12/30/20...231,716r....01/13/21....3,963........|.Six-day surge in confirmed cases possible starting about 12/29/20 **.
12/17/20...28.6.....12/18/20.....12/31/20...231,470r....01/14/21....3,929........|.Six-day surge in deaths possible starting about 01/11/21 **.
12/18/20...27.9........................01/01/21...158,550r....01/15/21....3,802......./.
12/19/20...26.6........................01/02/21...298,031r....01/16/21....3,352....../.
................................................01/03/21...209,506r.....................................
12/20/20...23.5.....12/21/20.....01/04/21...181,072r....01/17/21...[1,749].....\.
12/21/20...20.9........................01/05/21...230,428r....01/18/21...[1,403]......\.Four-day deceleration of confirmed cases likely starting about 01/03/21 **
12/22/20...21.2........................01/06/21...251,783r....01/19/21....2,769......./.Four-day deceleration of deaths likely starting about 01/17/21 **
12/23/20...22.5........................01/07/21...275,026t....01/20/21....4,375....../.
12/24/20...25.0.....12/25/20.....01/08/21...292,726r....01/21/21....3,553.e...\.
12/25/20...28.6........................01/09/21...264,620r....01/22/21....4,048.e....\.Three-day surge in confirmed cases possible starting about 01/07/20 **.
................................................01/10/21...216,290......................................./.Three-day surge in deaths possible starting about 01/21/20 **.
12/26/20...29.9........................01/11/21...213,304.....01/23/21....4,494.e.../.......(Coldest Day Of 20/21 Winter So Far)
12/27/20...25.6.....12/28/20.....01/12/21...225,423.....01/24/21...[1,389]e...\.
12/28/20...24.4........................01/13/21...230,166.....01/25/21...[1,866]e....\.
12/29/20...27.2...........................................................01/26/21....2,725.e.....|.
12/30/20...24.9........................01/14/21...235,561.....01/27/21....3,580.e.....|.
12/31/20...25.0.....01/01/21.....01/15/21...241,576.....01/28/21....3,547.e.....|.Twelve-day deceleration of confirmed cases likely starting about 01/10/21 **
01/01/21...25.7........................01/16/21...202,758.....01/29/21....3,695.e.....|..Twelve-day deceleration of deaths likely starting about 01/24/21 **
01/02/21...23.3........................01/17/21...177,918.....01/30/21....3,227.e.....|.
01/03/21...25.0........................01/18/21...141,999.....01/31/21...[1,420]e.....|.
01/04/21...23.8........................01/19/21...177,256.....02.01/21...[1,858]e.....|.
01/05/21...24.1........................01/20/21...182,695.....02/02/21....?,???........|.
01/06/21...24.0........................01/21/21.....................02/03/21....?,???......./.
01/07/21...25.4........................01/22/21.....................02/04/21....?,???....../.
01/08/21...27.6...........................................................02/05/21....?,???......\.
01/09/21...28.2...........................................................02/06/21....?,???.......\.Four-day surge in confirmed cases likely starting about 01/22/20 **.
01/10/21...28.4...........................................................02/07/21...[?,???]....../.Four-day surge in deaths likely starting about 02/05/20 **.
01/11/21...28.1...........................................................02/08/21...[?,???]...../.
01/12/21...25.5...........................................................02/09/21....?,???......\.
01/13/21...23.1...........................................................02/10/21....?,???.......\.
01/14/21...21.3...........................................................02/11/21....?,???........|.Eight-day deceleration of confirmed cases starting about 01/26/20 **
01/15/21...22.7...........................................................02/12/21....?,???........|.Eight day deceleration of deaths starting about 02/09/20 **
01/16/21...23.8...........................................................02/13/21....?,???........|.
01/17/21...23.8...........................................................02/14/21...[?,???].......|.
01/18/21...24.4...........................................................02/15/21...[?,???]....../.
01/19/21...24.9...........................................................02/16/21....?,???....../.
01/20/21...26.2...........................................................02/17/21....?,???......
.......e......Estimated data.
.......r.......Revised data.
.......**.....Dates will update as Relation (span between degree-days and confirmation) changes.
.......***...Relations will update as modeling measures recognize change.
.......[Bracketed]......Under-reported weekend deaths.



Global Vaccinations:......(www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/)
============================================================================
......As of Dec 28th.....4.6 million doses have been given in 16 countries
......As of Dec 29th.....5.1 million doses have been given in 22 countries
......As of Dec 30th.....6.0 million doses have been given in 26 countries
......As of Dec 31st...10.3 million doses have been given in 29 countries
......As of Jan 1st......10.8 million doses have been given in 29 countries
......As of Jan 2nd.....12.0 million doses have been given in 30 countries
......As of Jan 3rd......12.3 million doses have been given in 30 countries
......As of Jan 4th......13.0 million doses have been given in 33 countries
......As of Jan 5th......15.0 million doses have been given in 35 countries
......As of Jan 6th......15.9 million doses have been given in 37 countries
......As of Jan 7th......17.5 million doses have been given in 38 countries
......As of Jan 8th......18.9 million doses have been given in 39 countries
......As of Jan 9th......24.0 million doses have been given in 41 countries
......As of Jan 10th....25.0 million doses have been given in 42 countries
......As of Jan 11th....29.0 million doses have been given in 43 countries
......As of Jan 12th....30.5 million doses have been given in 43 countries
......As of Jan 13th....32.4 million doses have been given in 45 countries
......As of Jan 14th....34.5 million doses have been given in 49 countries
......As of Jan 15th....37.9 million doses have been given in 49 countries
......As of Jan 16th....39.7 million doses have been given in 51 countries
......As of Jan 17th....42.2 million doses have been given in 51 countries
......As of Jan 18th....44.0 million doses have been given in 51 countries
......As of Jan 19th....46.2 million doses have been given in 51 countries
......As of Jan 20th....54.3 million doses have been given in 51 countries
......As of Jan 21th....56.7 million doses have been given in 52 countries



...............................................................NON-CHINA
.....................................................==================
.....WHO.............Infectious...................Confirmed............................Deaths
...Situation.............Initial........................& 3-Day............................& 3-Day
....Report.............2.Weeks..................Growth Rate....................Growth Rate............Mortality
---------------.....---------------......----------------------------......----------------------------.....-----------
..........01/05.......9,660,748i......86,373,196..(+....2.2%).......1,864,122..(+....1.8%).......2.158%
..........01/06.......9,629,176i......87,152,460..(+....2.4%).......1,879,137..(+....2.2%).......2.156%
..........01/07.......9,560,651i......88,008,726..(+....2.8%).......1,893,768..(+....2.4%).......2.152%
..........01/08.......9,467,685i......88,830,787..(+....2.8%).......1,909,130..(+....2.4%).......2.149%
..........01/09.......9,352,476i......89,595,448..(+....2.8%).......1,921,847..(+....2.3%).......2.145%......Relates to Friday, Dec 25th
..........01/10.......9,214,931i......90,186,264..(+....2.5%).......1,930,013..(+....1.9%).......2.140%
..........01/11.......9,053,659i......90,804,047..(+....2.2%).......1,940,240..(+....1.6%).......2.137%
..........01/12.......8,867,934i......91,507,972..(+....2.1%).......1,957,569..(+....1.9%).......2.139%
..........01/13.......8,665,695i......92,257,989..(+....2.3%).......1,973,945..(+....2.3%).......2.140%......Relates to Monday, Dec 28th.
..........01/14.......8,445,877i......93,013,040..(+....2.4%).......1,989,258..(+....2.5%).......2.139%
..........01/15.......8,214,341i......93,778,590..(+....2.5%).......2,004,296..(+....2.4%).......2.137%......Relates to Friday, Jan 1st.
..........01/16.......7,983,325i......94,397,628..(+....2.3%).......2,017,328..(+....2.2%).......2.137%
..........01/17.......7,757,918i......94,947,695..(+....2.1%).......2,026,034..(+....1.8%).......2.134%
..........01/18.......7,540,309i......95,461,483..(+....1.8%).......2,035,309..(+....1.5%).......2.132%
..........01/19.......7,326,973i......96,069,610..(+....1.8%).......2,052,415..(+....1.7%).......2.136%......Relates to Monday, Jan 4th.
..........01/20.......7,113,864i......96,763,512..(+....1.9%).......2,069,963..(+....2.2%).......2.139%

Data Sources:...... https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv
............................. https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv

Globally, the confirmed-case 3-day growth is substantively decelerating. Deaths 3-day growth rate also is decelerating.
We continue to use the 7-day cycle today for the comparisons in deaths, but a 6-day spread for week-over-week confirmed
cases, which meaning whatever backlog was soaking up data is now known to have reversed and we are now over-counting.

Non-China confirmed 3-day growth rises to 1.9% (1.8% yesterday, 2.4% six days ago), as 693,902 net confirmed cases
are added (862,095 from January 7th is recognized as the record).

The growth rate in deaths rises to 2.2% (1.7% yesterday, 2.3% seven days ago) with a record 17,548 deaths added (old record
was 17,329 for January 12th).

Daily case mortality was 2.529% (2.813% yesterday). Seven-day rate leaps to 2.131% (2.079% (2.041% yesterday, 1.908 six day's
ago). Cumulative-case mortality rises to 2.139% (Bottom was 2.132% two days ago - that looks to be a major bottom as mortality
is now rising quite rapidly).

Infectious spreaders (estimated persons in their initial 2 weeks) rise to 7,113,864. The United States Of America leads all
nations for the 95th day, with 1,639,514 spreaders on the loose. Spain holds second at 729,986, Brazil climbs from 4th to
third with 519,616, The United Kingdom slips from 3rd to fourth with 358,831, and The Russian Federation remains fifth with
262,771 spreaders in their nation.

Historically, the United States Of America leads the world in accumulated confirmed cases (24,438,723), India has the second
largest count (10,610,883), Brazil is the third largest (8,638,249), Russian Federation is fourth (3,595,136), and The United
Kingdom is fifth (3,515,796 cases since COVID-19 arrived there).

Fastest spread (where the virus is spreading the fastest percentage-wise over a 3 day period) is in Saint Vincent And The
Grenadines (Confirmed cases grew 25.9% over the last 3 days), Comoros (21.4%), Malawi (19.1%), Saint Lucia (16.7%),
and Mozambique (10.7%). These are the nations having the most difficulty containing COVID-19 from spreading outward from
existing infected people out into their general populations.

Deadliest nations for the COVID-19 infected include Yemen at the top (28.936% cumulative mortality), Mexico (..8.548%),
Syrian Arab Republic (..6.445%), Ecuador (..6.161%), and Sudan (..6.100%). Most of these are due to specific strains
(and mixtures of strains) which are statistically suggested by distinct patterns, termed COVID-19-B (and in Yemen's
case COVID-19-C) which are exhibited as classifiable patterns within certain nations.

COVID-19-B was first picked up in the Iranian data, then in specific European nations, and was talked early on in Iranian
governmental circles, and presumably was carried from China to Iran, then from Iran to several central European nations.
It may be that diplomatic circles, and diplomacy, may prove out to be a prime avenue for viral spread in this case.

COVID-19-C was first picked up in the Yemen data, then in Saudi Arabia (May 26th reversal in mortality momentum),
Afghanistan (June 6th), Iran (June 20th), Egypt (June 13th), Oman (June 26th), Syria (July 3rd), and Morocco (August 1st).
Fortunately COVID-19-C has been prevented in all these nations from becoming a major outbreak, and several have low
enough rates of spread to suggest it is near eradication. Still, the pattern is persistent and there is risk of spread of this
implied highly-lethal statistical pattern.



....................................................NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
....................................==================================
.................Infectious..................Confirmed................................Deaths
....................Initial.......................& 3-Day..............................& 3-Day
.Date.........2.Weeks.................Growth Rate........................Growth Rate................Mortality
-------......-------------......------------------------------......----------------------------......---------------
01/05.......8,236,317.......72,691,480..(+.......2.3%).......1,509,084..(+.....1.9%)............2.076%
01/06.......8,184,502.......73,349,295..(+.......2.5%).......1,521,350..(+.....2.3%)............2.074%
01/07.......8,100,872.......74,060,622..(+.......2.8%).......1,533,432..(+.....2.5%)............2.071%
01/08.......7,994,335.......74,766,557..(+.......2.9%).......1,546,519..(+.....2.5%)............2.068%
01/09.......7,865,510.......75,412,875..(+.......2.8%).......1,557,130..(+.....2.4%)............2.065%......Relates to Friday, Dec 25th
01/10.......7,714,729.......75,925,795..(+.......2.5%).......1,564,063..(+.....2.0%)............2.060%
01/11.......7,542,092.......76,464,725..(+.......2.3%).......1,572,583..(+.....1.7%)............2.057%
01/12.......7,347,206.......77,054,115..(+.......2.2%).......1,587,308..(+.....1.9%)............2.060%
01/13.......7,136,490.......77,684,167..(+.......2.3%).......1,600,883..(+.....2.4%)............2.061%......Relates to Monday, Dec 28th.
01/14.......6,908,799.......78,311,097..(+.......2.4%).......1,613,644..(+.....2.6%)............2.061%
01/15.......6,668,727.......78,935,882..(+.......2.4%).......1,626,057..(+.....2.4%)............2.060%......Relates to Friday, Jan 1st.
01/16.......6,426,113.......79,439,117..(+.......2.3%).......1,637,066..(+.....2.3%)............2.061%
01/17.......6,185,137.......79,908,655..(+.......2.0%).......1,644,312..(+.....1.9%)............2.058%
01/18.......5,948,821.......80,360,107..(+.......1.8%).......1,651,789..(+.....1.6%)............2.055%
01/19.......5,716,115.......80,861,301..(+.......1.8%).......1,666,048..(+.....1.8%)............2.060%......Relates to Monday, Jan 4th.
01/20.......5,484,795.......81,425,295..(+.......1.9%).......1,680,728..(+.....2.2%)............2.064%

The Northern Hemisphere's confirmed 3-day growth (by the 6-day measure today) is substantively decelerating.
Growth in deaths is decelerating.

Confirmed-case 3-day growth gains to 1.9% (1.8% prior, 2.4% six days ago). The growth rate in deaths rises to 2.2%
(1.8% prior, and 2.4% seven days ago).

Daily mortality was 2.603% (2.845% prior). The seven-day rate leaps to 2.134% (2.068% prior, 1.887% six days ago).
Cumulative-case mortality rises to 2.064% (Bottom was 2.055% two days ago - that looks to be a major bottom as mortality
is now rising quite rapidly).



..................................................SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
..................................==================================
.................Infectious..................Confirmed................................Deaths
....................Initial.......................& 3-Day..............................& 3-Day
.Date.........2.Weeks.................Growth Rate........................Growth Rate.............Mortality
-------......-------------......------------------------------......----------------------------......------------
01/05.......1,399,503.......13,848,268..(+.......1.5%).......381,205..(+.......1.3%)........2.753%
01/06.......1,413,913.......13,968,373..(+.......2.0%).......383,941..(+.......1.7%)........2.749%
01/07.......1,420,137.......14,111,836..(+.......2.6%).......386,476..(+.......2.0%)........2.739%
01/08.......1,420,733.......14,226,147..(+.......2.7%).......388,718..(+.......2.0%)........2.732%
01/09.......1,416,185.......14,342,789..(+.......2.7%).......390,795..(+.......1.8%)........2.725%......Relates to Friday, Dec 25th
01/10.......1,405,567.......14,418,691..(+.......2.2%).......392,004..(+.......1.4%)........2.719%
01/11.......1,387,435.......14,495,970..(+.......1.9%).......393,692..(+.......1.3%)........2.716%
01/12.......1,361,089.......14,608,660..(+.......1.9%).......396,259..(+.......1.4%)........2.712%......Relates to Monday, Dec 28th.
01/13.......1,328,209.......14,726,580..(+.......2.1%).......399,016..(+.......1.8%)........2.709%
01/14.......1,288,387.......14,852,068..(+.......2.5%).......401,522..(+.......2.0%)........2.703%
01/15.......1,243,475.......14,990,962..(+.......2.6%).......404,103..(+.......2.0%)........2.696%
01/16.......1,197,027.......15,104,457..(+.......2.6%).......406,102..(+.......1.8%)........2.689%......Relates to Friday, Jan 1st?
01/17.......1,150,366.......15,183,324..(+.......2.2%).......407,526..(+.......1.5%)........2.684%
01/18.......1,104,318.......15,244,677..(+.......1.7%).......409,253..(+.......1.3%)........2.685%
01/19.......1,058,176.......15,349,920..(+.......1.6%).......412,036..(+.......1.5%)........2.684%......Relates to Monday, Jan 4th?
01/20.......1,011,774.......15,477,945..(+.......1.9%).......414,855..(+.......1.8%)........2.680%

The Southern Hemisphere's confirmed 3-day growth (by the 7-day measure today) is decelerating. Growth in deaths is
remains stalled.

Confirmed-case 3-day growth rises to 1.9% (1.6% prior, 2.1% seven days ago). The growth rate in deaths rises to 1.8%
(1.5% prior, and 1.8% seven days ago).

Daily mortality was 2.202% (2.644% prior). The seven-day rate eases to 2.108% (2.128% prior, 1.988% seven days ago).

Cumulative case-mortality hits a new low of 2.680%.



United States Vaccinations:......(www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/)
================================================================================
......As of Dec 28th...2.13 million doses have been given in the US.
......As of Dec 29th...2.32 million doses have been given in the US.
......As of Dec 30th...3.05 million doses given. 12.20 million doses distributed, ..9.15 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Dec 31st...3.17 million doses given. 12.19 million doses distributed, ..9.02 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Jan 1st......3.49 million doses given. 12.46 million doses distributed, ..8.97 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Jan 2nd.....4.28 million doses given, 12.97 million doses distributed, ..8.69 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Jan 3rd......4.33 million doses given, 13.12 million doses distributed, ..8.79 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Jan 4th......4.66 million doses given, 15.53 million doses distributed, 10.87 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Jan 5th......5.05 million doses given, 16.83 million doses distributed, 11.78 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Jan 6th......5.48 million doses given, 17.13 million doses distributed, 11.65 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Jan 7th......6.25 million doses given, 21.55 million doses distributed, 15.30 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Jan 8th......7.05 million doses given, 22.03 million doses distributed, 14.98 million unadministered doses warehoused by states.
......As of Jan 9th......7.73 million doses given, .....................................22.09 million doses distributed, 14.36 million unadministered, 4.47 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 10th....8.02 million doses given to ..7.75 million people, 22.77 million doses distributed, 14.75 million unadministered, 4.17 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 11th....9.27 million doses given to ..8.89 million people, 25.75 million doses distributed, 16.48 million unadministered, 3.19 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 12th....9.94 million doses given to ..9.30 million people, 27.61 million doses distributed, 17.67 million unadministered, 3.03 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 13th..10.80 million doses given to 10.04 million people, 29.19 million doses distributed, 18.39 million unadministered, 2.32 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 14th..11.30 million doses given to 10.22 million people, 30.54 million doses distributed, 19.24 million unadministered, 4.23 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 15th..13.00 million doses given to ..n/a.. million people, 30.95 million doses distributed, 17.95 million unadministered, 3.83 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 16th..13.70 million doses given to 11.94 million people, 31.14 million doses distributed, 17.44 million unadministered, 3.43 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 17th..14.30 million doses given to 12.50 million people, 31.09 million doses distributed, 16.79 million unadministered, 7.25 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 18th..14.70 million doses given to 12.87 million people, 31.28 million doses distributed, 16.58 million unadministered, 7.33 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 19th..15.60 million doses given to 13.64 million people, 31.20 million doses distributed, 15.60 million unadministered, 6.49 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 20th..17.20 million doses given to 14.90 million people, 35.83 million doses distributed, 18.63 million unadministered, 5.57 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).
......As of Jan 21th..18.40 million doses given to 15.82 million people, 37.55 million doses distributed, 19.15 million unadministered, 7.35 million unadministered ten days or longer (FIFO).



...............................................UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
...............................=======================================
.................Infectious..................Confirmed.................................Deaths
....................Initial.......................& 3-Day...............................& 3-Day
.Date.........2.Weeks.................Growth Rate.........................Growth Rate................Mortality
-------......-------------......------------------------------......------------------------------......--------------
01/05.......3,216,752i......21,109,622..(+.......3.0%).......357,395..(+..........2.0%).......1.693%
01/06.......3,181,436i......21,361,405..(+.......3.2%).......361,283..(+..........2.7%).......1.691%
01/07.......3,129,296i......21,636,431..(+.......3.6%).......365,232..(+..........3.3%).......1.688%
01/08.......3,064,283i......21,929,157..(+.......3.9%).......369,267..(+..........3.3%).......1.684%
01/09.......2,985,343i......22,193,777..(+.......3.9%).......372,516..(+..........3.1%).......1.678%......Relates to Friday, Dec 25th
01/10.......2,893,559i......22,410,067..(+.......3.6%).......374,337..(+..........2.5%).......1.670%
01/11.......2,790,568i......22,623,371..(+.......3.2%).......376,343..(+..........1.9%).......1.664%
01/12.......2,677,827i......22,848,794..(+.......3.0%).......380,805..(+..........2.2%).......1.667%
01/13.......2,558,636i......23,078,960..(+.......3.0%).......384,768..(+..........2.8%).......1.667%......Relates to Monday, Dec 28th.
01/14.......2,431,264i......23,314,521..(+.......3.1%).......388,697..(+..........3.3%).......1.667%
01/15.......2,297,470i......23,556,097..(+.......3.1%).......392,499..(+..........3.1%).......1.666%......Relates to Friday, Jan 1st.
01/16.......2,161,565i......23,758,855..(+.......2.9%).......395,851..(+..........2.9%).......1.666%
01/17.......2,026,528i......23,936,773..(+.......2.7%).......397,600..(+..........2.3%).......1.661%
01/18.......1,894,441i......24,078,772..(+.......2.2%).......399,003..(+..........1.7%).......1.657%
01/19.......1,765,578i......24,256,028..(+.......2.1%).......401,772..(+..........1.5%).......1.656%......Relates to Monday, Jan 4th?
01/20.......1,639,513i......24,438,723..(+.......2.1%).......406,147..(+..........2.1%).......1.662%

The US confirmed-case 3-day growth is materially decelerating. Growth in deaths is decelerating.

Confirmed-case 3-day growth holds to 2.1% (2.1% yesterday, 3.1% six days ago) as 182,695 confirmed cases are added
(record was 298,031 for January 2nd). US deaths 3-day growth rate rises to 2.1% (1.5% prior, 2.8% seven days
ago) on 4,375 deaths (record was January 12th's 4,462 deaths). Cumulative case-mortality for the US rises to 1.662%
(yesterday was the low at 1.656%).

Daily mortality for the United States was 2.935% (1.562% yesterday). Seven-day mortality leaps to 1.572% (1.490% prior,
1.398% six days ago).

The US infectious model estimate rises to 1,639,513 spreaders (January 9th's estimate of 4,118,044 was the peak).
California leads all states for the 6th day, with 203,212 spreaders out and about. Texas climbs from 4th to second at
140,392, New York slips from 2nd to third with 125,942, Florida rises from 5th to fourth at 89,160, and Virginia drops
from 3rd to fifth with 55,019 spreaders in Old Dominion.

Historically California leads the US in accumulated confirmed cases (3,019,371), Texas has the second
largest count (2,166,283), Florida is the third largest (1,571,840), New York is fourth (1,271,451), and Illinois is fifth
(1,081,354 cases since COVID-19 arrived in their state).

For US Confirmed-Case 3-day growth, COVID-19's fastest multipliers in the US are Connecticut (Confirmed cases
grew 4.8% over the last 3 days), New Hampshire (4.5%), Maine (4.2%), Vermont (4.1%), and Virginia (3.7%).

On Case Mortality rates New Jersey is at the top (3.223% cumulative mortality), Massachusetts is second (2.875%),
Connecticut third (2.873%), New York fourth (2.628%), and Pennsylvania fifth (2.537%).

....................Fastest COVID-19 Growth States, last 30 days
======================================================
81.3%......Maine (From 19,285 to 34,963 confirmed cases)
60.3%......Vermont (From 6,534 to 10,471 confirmed cases)
59.6%......California (From 1,892,348 to 3,019,371 confirmed cases)
59.0%......New Hampshire (From 37,388 to 59,437 confirmed cases)
52.3%......West Virginia (From 73,337 to 111,677 confirmed cases)
49.7%......Arizona (From 461,345 to 690,544 confirmed cases)
48.4%......New York (From 857,049 to 1,271,451 confirmed cases)
46.9%......Massachusetts (From 327,374 to 481,040 confirmed cases)
46.5%......Virginia (From 310,890 to 455,591 confirmed cases)
45.0%......South Carolina (From 275,733 to 399,843 confirmed cases)

For the past 30 days, The virus had long ago migrated to the northern states on seasonality, where the "second wave" has
been building and is expected to inundate the US and crest imminently in the absence of vaccine or trend change. Vigilance
must expand to forestall the winter crest, requiring a change in thinking on a very broad scope. A viral surge is expected on
the degree-days ramp into any mid-winter arctic outbreak (as when China's COVID-19 exploded in January 2020).

Maine is the top state for 30-day viral spread, growing from 19,285 cases on December 21st, to 34,963 cases on January 20th,
an increase of 81%. These are the states where COVID-19 was strongest in the US the last 30 days, spreading the fastest
person to person.

States - this is your scoreboard, telling you who are the weakest states in the nation. New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont,
Virginia... All four of you are also on today's top-5 list of 3-day growth-rates. If you are on this list (or your furnace is running
during the day) take warning for your state!


Maintain your vigilance, and do your part:
* Use a saline nose spray, hydrogen Peroxide or alcohol swab in nostrils when ariving home. ( *** new *** )
* Maintain 6' minimal social distancing.
* Wear your mask when out.
* Drive your own car if at all possible.
* Use grocery delivery to drop off at your doorstep, or curbside delivery to your trunk.
* Avoid sitting within 6 feet of another on the subway or bus and beware of germs left behind by others.
* Avoid crowds.
* Make as few trips out as humanly possible.
* Don't touch anything in the store that you don't buy.
* Wash hands anytime you come in.
* Use hand-sanitizer whenever you touch any object.
* Run a vaporizer/humidifier when your furnace runs in the daytime.
* Don't touch yourself above the shoulders.
* Sterilize the mail when it comes.
* Beware germs that may be harbored in newspapers, magazines, and books.
* Be careful of sports. Everyone who touches the ball, gets the virus.

At the office:
* Use a saline nose spray, hydrogen Peroxide or alcohol swab in nostrils after meetings. ( *** new *** )
* Avoid the coffee pot and snack table. They could come with a little something extra, that you don't know about.
* Clean your own desk / cubicle / space. Request no janitorial.
* Take hand sanitizer with you for your desk, as well as on your person.
* Beware doorknobs / elevator buttons / railings. Think as contaminated and use hand sanitizer afterwards.
* Meet coworkers by phone instead of in person.
* Eat own lunch (brought with you) at your desk rather than in the lunch room.
* Avoid break rooms, meeting rooms, common sitting areas, etc.
* Best in common rooms to face the same direction as coworkers so breaths drift toward backs of heads, not front.
* Avoid handshakes, high fives, and the like.
* Managers, use toilet disinfectant dispensers like www.amazon.com/Antibacterial-Automatic-Disinfectant-Scrub-Free-Bathroom/dp/B07F8MHGKJ


-Rob


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