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Coronavirus: Information from the Front Lines
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COVID-19 Statistics (Summary).............................................................NON-CHINA ....................................................================== ....OWID............Infectious..................Confirmed..........................Deaths ...Situation............Initial.......................& 3-Day..........................& 3-Day ....Report............2.Weeks.................Growth Rate....................Growth Rate..........Mortality ---------------.....-------------......----------------------------......-------------------------.....----------- ..........09/10.......3,955,003i......27,819,220..(+....2.7%).......899,517..(+....1.7%).......3.233% ..........09/11.......3,978,267i......28,124,319..(+....3.1%).......905,407..(+....1.9%).......3.219% ..........09/12.......4,000,715i......28,429,590..(+....3.3%).......911,291..(+....2.0%).......3.205% ..........09/13.......4,022,287i......28,716,750..(+....3.2%).......916,222..(+....1.9%).......3.191% ..........09/14.......4,043,463i......28,989,415..(+....3.1%).......920,102..(+....1.6%).......3.174% ..........09/15.......4,064,201i......29,232,149..(+....2.8%).......924,336..(+....1.4%).......3.162% ..........09/16.......4,084,211i......29,536,249..(+....2.9%).......931,293..(+....1.6%).......3.153% ..........09/17.......4,102,563i......29,828,285..(+....2.9%).......936,728..(+....1.8%).......3.140% ..........09/18.......4,118,698i......30,143,546..(+....3.1%).......942,048..(+....1.9%).......3.125% ..........09/19.......4,132,888i......30,454,759..(+....3.1%).......947,999..(+....1.8%).......3.113% ..........09/20.......4,147,413i......30,750,885..(+....3.1%).......953,072..(+....1.7%).......3.099% ..........09/21.......4,164,761i......31,037,157..(+....3.0%).......956,813..(+....1.6%).......3.083% ..........09/22.......4,185,342i......31,302,605..(+....2.8%).......961,208..(+....1.4%).......3.071% ..........09/23.......4,207,692i......31,582,839..(+....2.7%).......967,272..(+....1.5%).......3.063% ..........09/24.......4,230,923i......31,891,762..(+....2.8%).......973,637..(+....1.8%).......3.053% ..........09/25.......4,254,355i......32,198,618..(+....2.9%).......979,302..(+....1.9%).......3.041% Data Sources: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv Global confirmed-case growth rates are fluctuating but overall the decline has stalled. The worry is that seasonality is on the way, and like the common cold (which is a form of Coronavirus too) COVID-19 will make a comeback in the Northern Hemi- sphere (where most of the worlds population is), and thus in the global totals as well. Non-China confirmed 3-day growth climbs to 2.9% (2.8% yesterday, 3.1% seven days ago), as 306,856 confirmed cases were added (September 18th's record revises to 315,261 cases). The growth rate in deaths rises to 1.9% (1.8% yesterday) with 5,665 deaths added (April 16th's peak was revised to 10,467). Cumulative-case mortality hits a new low of 3.041%, far below the April 25th peak of 7.347%. Daily case mortality was 1.846$ (2.060% yesterday). The Seven-day rate is 1.813% (1.789% yesterday, 1.815% seven days ago), in line with the continuing medical-side progress to date. This is consistent with a reduction in mortality of ~75% since the April 25th peak. Infectious spreaders (an estimate of the persons in their initial 2 weeks) are at 4,254,355 (3,548,773 yesterday). India leads all nations for the 52nd day, with 1,115,623 infectious spreaders in their nation (935,927 yesterday). The United States Of America holds second at 482,897 (594,304 prior), Brazil climbs from 5th to third with 435,260 (vs 262,113), France comes anew to fourth, at 185,803, and Argentina drops from 4th to fifth at 177,577. Historically, the United States Of America leads the world in accumulated confirmed cases (6,978,417), India has the second largest count (5,818,570), Brazil is the third largest (4,657,702), Russian Federation is fourth (1,128,836), and Colombia is fifth (790,823 cases since COVID-19 arrived in their nation). Fastest spread (where the virus is spreading the fastest percentage-wise over a 3 day period) is in Bonaire, Sint Eustatius And Saba (Confirmed cases grew 39.3% over the last 3 days), Myanmar (31.6%), Jordan (30.6%), Tunisia (18.2%), and Czechia (15.0%). These are the nations having the most difficulty containing COVID-19 from spreading outward from existing infected persons out into their general population. All are small outbreaks (Czechia the exception at 58,374) and typically nations experience their greatest difficulty at the onset of their respective outbreaks (when a nation cannot be too fast to scramble to contain COVID-19). The number of nations experiencing at least 25% growth in confirmed cases holds at 3, and the number experiencing 10% growth (or higher) stays at 11. Deadliest nations for the COVID-19 infected include Yemen at the top (28.874% cumulative mortality), Italy (11.758%), Mexico (10.544%), The United Kingdom (10.064%), and Belgium (..9.170%). Most of these are due to specific strains (and mixtures of strains) which are statistically suggested by distinct patterns, termed COVID-19-B (and in Yemen's case COVID-19-C) which are exhibited as classifiable patterns within certain nations. COVID-19-B was first picked up in the Iranian data, then in specific European nations, and was talked early on in Iranian governmental circles, and presumably was carried from China to Iran, then from Iran to several central European nations. It may be that diplomatic circles, and diplomacy, may prove out to be a prime avenue for viral spread in this case. COVID-19-C was first picked up in the Yemen data, then in Saudi Arabia (May 26th reversal in mortality momentum), Afghanistan (June 6th), Iran (June 20th), Egypt (June 13th), Oman (June 26th), Syria (July 3rd), and Morocco (August 1st). Fortunately COVID-19-C has been prevented in all these nations from becoming a major outbreak, and several have low enough rates of spread to suggest it is near eradication. Still, the pattern is persistent and there is risk of spread of this implied highly-lethal statistical pattern. .............................................................COVID-19-C ....................................................================== "COVID-19-B" and "COVID-19-C" are (as mentioned above) my own (robry825) conventions for differing statistical patterns within global COVID-19 reporting, interpreted as differing strains/mutations/clades of the Coronavirus within the global landscape. The original virus(termed by me as "garden variety COVID-19") was later termed "D614" within the general bio-science community and the research, while COVID-19-B was later termed "G614". (see www.pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32374903/). The "COVID-19-C" statistical pattern has yet (to the best of my knowledge) been termed and described, though its presence statistically has become solid... first in the nation of Yemen, then in its subsequent emergence into the middle East. Yemen was the first COVID-19-C prospect, different in pattern from the less-deadly COVID-19-B and the far-less-deadly garden-variety COVID-19. Yemen is now at 28.874% cumulative case mortality with 587 deaths out of 2,033 confirmed cases. Yemen reported one new case, no deaths today. Seven-day mortality is 30%. Infectious spreaders are estimated at only 6 people, so eradication is very close for Yemen on it's data. Afghanistan (likely breeding COVID-19-C since at least June 5th) was garden-variety COVID-19. Cumulative case mortality peaked at 3.509%, and like the rest of the world its mortality rate fell and bottomed June 6th at 1.629%. It since rose to 3.704%. No report today. From yesterday's post: Daily mortality was 20.000% (2.817% yesterday), the seven-day rate 5.034%. Infectious spreaders are estimated at 411. Iran has lost it's COVID-19-C signal, but red flags appear in the data that are consistent with messaging, which could mean deaths are getting too out of hand to publish accurately for the regime, so Iran is now a big bold red question mark.. Iran (likely breeding COVID-19-C since at least June 20th) was COVID-19-B variety and may have been the conduit through which COVID-19-B entered Europe. Iran saw it's cumulative case mortality bottom June 20th at 4.690%. It had since risen to 5.766% September 7th (5.733% today). Daily mortality was 4.97%, the 7-day rate 5.209%. Infectious spreaders are estimated now at 52,192. Egypt's cumulative case mortality bottomed June 13th at 3.443%, and has since risen to 5.692% and is accelerating. Daily mortality today was 9.420% (13.223% yesterday), with the 7-day rate at 13.761%. Egypt's daily mortality rates have stabilized at high levels, so COVID-19-C is assumed anchored. The three-day growth rate in deaths (along with rapid climb in mortality) warns of concentration of COVID-19-C in Egypt. Infectious spreaders are estimated at 1,702. The Syrian Arab Republic saw its cumulative case-mortality bottom July 3rd (2.885%), then rocket to a 5.993% peak on July 24th, strongly suggesting COVID-19-C. The pattern then changed, COVID-19 spread began accelerating, and because deaths come long after confirmed cases the lag covers the COVID-19-C signature in the data. More recent data for Syria saw Cumulative case mortality bottom at 3.766% August 16th, then rise to 4.614% today. Daily mortality was 4.762% (6.383% yesterday) and the seven-day rate is at 6.545%. Infectious spreaders are estimated at 648. Saudi Arabia is likely the bellwether for the rest of the globe as the strain emerges. A relatively wealthy nation with a modern medical system, a relatively large outbreak (331,857 confirmed cases), and relatively good control of spread (0.5% three-day growth in cases), the nation typifies the globe into which COVID-19-C is to emerge. Cumulative-case mortality bottomed here May 26th at 0.533%, and since increased to 1.386% today and is accelerating. Daily mortality was 6.024% (4.813% yesterday), and the seven-day rate is 5.386%. Growth rates in deaths are outrunning growth rates in confirmed cases better than 3-to-1 (negative velocity) so COVID-19-C is (like in Egypt) slowly growing in viral share (prevalence). Negative velocity was one of the hallmarks of COVID-19-B, and so it is also with COVID-19-C as that, too, gains ground. Infectious spreaders are estimated at 7,394. Oman's cumulative case mortality bottomed June 26th at 0.413%. It has since risen to 0.923% . Daily mortality was 1.761% (1.592% prior), seven day rate 1.613%. Infectious spreaders are estimated at 6,290. Get that vaccine out! Do whatever is medically sound to accelerate it. Get it into global distribution no later than by the end of September (2020). Forget 2021, it could very well be too late. Fund it, secure it, contract it out sight unseen if necessary to start commercial production while the vaccine is under evaluation. Use volunteer live-testing if you have to, but only if you have to. But get those vaccines in commercial production ASAP. Several of them. Use both sequenced COVID-19 from the garden-variety nations (ie South Korea) and the COVID-19-B nations (ie Italy and France). But get it done by September, period. ......................................................NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ......................................================================== .................Infectious....................Confirmed.................................Deaths ....................Initial.........................& 3-Day..............................& 3-Day .Date.........2.Weeks...................Growth Rate........................Growth Rate................Mortality -------......-------------......---------------------------------......--------------------------......------------------ 09/10.......3,160,291.......20,855,591..(+.......3.0%).......694,232..(+.....1.6%)............3.329% 09/11.......3,181,344.......21,089,910..(+.......3.3%).......698,359..(+.....1.8%)............3.311% 09/12.......3,199,382.......21,321,108..(+.......3.3%).......702,501..(+.....1.8%)............3.295% 09/13.......3,213,760.......21,545,326..(+.......3.3%).......705,983..(+.....1.7%)............3.277% 09/14.......3,224,462.......21,774,152..(+.......3.2%).......708,969..(+.....1.5%)............3.256% 09/15.......3,231,441.......21,980,182..(+.......3.1%).......712,285..(+.....1.4%)............3.241% 09/16.......3,234,457.......22,224,945..(+.......3.2%).......717,314..(+.....1.6%)............3.228% 09/17.......3,233,195.......22,450,262..(+.......3.1%).......721,127..(+.....1.7%)............3.212% 09/18.......3,227,322.......22,701,310..(+.......3.3%).......724,813..(+.....1.8%)............3.193% 09/19.......3,216,858.......22,941,974..(+.......3.2%).......729,169..(+.....1.7%)............3.178% 09/20.......3,203,002.......23,175,123..(+.......3.2%).......732,854..(+.....1.6%)............3.162% 09/21.......3,187,013.......23,420,346..(+.......3.2%).......735,801..(+.....1.5%)............3.142% 09/22.......3,169,605.......23,643,163..(+.......3.1%).......738,893..(+.....1.3%)............3.125% 09/23.......3,150,598.......23,865,020..(+.......3.0%).......743,105..(+.....1.4%)............3.114% 09/24.......3,130,452.......24,110,172..(+.......2.9%).......747,539..(+.....1.6%)............3.101% 09/25.......3,109,431.......24,352,639..(+.......3.0%).......751,468..(+.....1.7%)............3.086% Global confirmed-case growth rates have resumed their previous decline for the Northern Hemisphere. Confirmed-case 3-day growth rises to 3.0% (2.9% yesterday, and 3.2% seven days ago). The growth rate in deaths gains to 1.7% (1.6% yesterday). Cumulative-case mortality hits a new low of 3.086%. Daily mortality was 1.620% (1.809% prior). The seven-day rate is 1.614% (1.591% prior, 1.642% seven days earlier). Given the highest cumulative mortality for the hemisphere was 7.989%, reduction in mortality for the Northern Hemisphere is running in the ~ 80% percent range, thanks to medical progress on the treatment side. .................................................SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE .................................================================== .................Infectious.................Confirmed..............................Deaths ....................Initial......................& 3-Day.............................& 3-Day .Date.........2.Weeks................Growth Rate.......................Growth Rate.............Mortality -------......-------------......-----------------------------......----------------------------......------------ 09/10..........797,132.......7,097,591..(+.......1.9%).......225,964..(+.......1.8%)........3.184% 09/11..........797,683.......7,168,658..(+.......2.5%).......227,741..(+.......2.2%)........3.177% 09/12..........799,057.......7,243,005..(+.......3.0%).......229,484..(+.......2.4%)........3.168% 09/13..........801,353.......7,306,214..(+.......2.9%).......230,948..(+.......2.2%)........3.161% 09/14..........804,539.......7,350,131..(+.......2.5%).......231,843..(+.......1.8%)........3.154% 09/15..........808,197.......7,387,087..(+.......2.0%).......232,773..(+.......1.4%)........3.151% 09/16..........811,946.......7,446,666..(+.......1.9%).......234,715..(+.......1.6%)........3.152% 09/17..........814,920.......7,513,610..(+.......2.2%).......236,351..(+.......1.9%)........3.146% 09/18..........816,770.......7,578,073..(+.......2.6%).......237,980..(+.......2.2%)........3.140% 09/19..........817,533.......7,648,820..(+.......2.7%).......239,592..(+.......2.1%)........3.132% 09/20..........818,229.......7,712,022..(+.......2.6%).......240,998..(+.......2.0%)........3.125% 09/21..........820,188.......7,753,278..(+.......2.3%).......241,801..(+.......1.6%)........3.119% 09/22..........823,275.......7,796,073..(+.......1.9%).......243,104..(+.......1.5%)........3.118% 09/23..........826,653.......7,854,639..(+.......1.8%).......244,953..(+.......1.6%)........3.119% 09/24..........829,472.......7,918,587..(+.......2.1%).......246,907..(+.......2.1%)........3.118% 09/25..........831,435.......7,983,156..(+.......2.4%).......248,638..(+.......2.3%)........3.115% The confirmed-case growth rate (3-day) while fluctuating, is seen to have stalled for the Southern Hemisphere. Confirmed-case 3-day growth rises to 2.4% (2.1% yesterday, 2.6% seven days ago). The growth rate in deaths rises to 2.3% (2.1% yesterday). Cumulative case-mortality hits its low of 3.115%. Daily mortality was 2.681% (3.056% prior). The seven-day rate was 2.631% (2.607% prior, 2.501% seven days ago), in line with the medical-side progress to date. Given the highest cumulative mortality for the hemisphere was 5.265%, reduction in mortality for the Southern Hemisphere (without the anomaly) is running in the ~ 55% percent range, lagging the Northern Hemisphere's ~ 80% accomplishments. ..........................................AUGUST 23, 2020 BY LATITUDE (OWID) ........................................================================ ......................Infectious...............Confirmed........................Deaths .........................Initial....................& 3-Day........................& 3-Day .Latitude........2.Weeks..............Growth Rate..................Growth Rate...............Mortality -----------......-------------......--------------------------......------------------------......------------------ 60°-65°N............72,044.......1,061,066..(+......1.5%).........22,769..(+....1.5%)............2.146%.......Iceland, Faroe Islands,Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, etc 55°-60°N............24,054..........471,555..(+......1.1%).........51,295..(+....0.1%)..........10.878%.......Canada, UK, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania 50°-55°N.*.........44,301..........540,784..(+......2.0%).........29,715..(+....0.3%)............5.495%.......Isle Of Man, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany 45°-50°N.*.......167,869..........854,774..(+......4.4%).........46,571..(+....0.8%)............5.448%.......France, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Guernsey, Ukraine, Minnesota 40°-45°N..........244,778.......2,624,746..(+......1.8%).......159,636..(+....0.3%)............6.082%.......Italy, Spain, Monaco, Kosovo, Guernsey, Mongolia,New York 35°-40°N..........262,385.......2,155,518..(+......2.8%).........45,746..(+....2.1%)............2.122%.......Portugal, Turkey, Tajikistan, China, Korea, Japan, Arkansas, California 30°-35°N..........309,234.......2,586,796..(+......2.8%).........70,105..(+....3.2%)............2.710%.......US, Morocco, Israel, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Texas 25°-30°N............90,920.......1,027,795..(+......2.1%).........18,377..(+....2.2%)............1.788%.......Bahamas, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, Nepal, Bhutan, Florida 20°-25°N.......1,172,084.......4,361,866..(+......5.8%).......125,722..(+....4.0%)............2.882%.......Mexico, Cuba, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, India 15°-20°N............46,766..........274,148..(+......3.8%)...........7,391..(+....3.4%)............2.696%.......Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Yemen, Thailand, Hawaii 10°-15°N............66,707..........297,377..(+......6.0%)...........6,493..(+....3.7%)............2.183%.......El Salvador, Sudan, Viet Nam, Philippines ..5°-10°N............67,473..........357,080..(+......4.1%)...........5,473..(+....3.4%)............1.533%.......Panama, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sri Lanka ..0°-..5°N..........139,295..........617,680..(+......5.5%).........30,236..(+....3.4%)............4.895%.......Columbia, Guyana, Malaysia, Singapore ..0°-..5°S............54,338..........316,203..(+......3.5%).........13,805..(+....3.1%)............4.366%.......Ecuador, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Indonesia ..5°-10°S..........117,323..........586,132..(+......4.8%).........27,478..(+....2.3%)............4.688%.......Peru, Timor-Leste, Tanzania 10°-15°S..........570,818.......3,600,785..(+......3.6%).......114,794..(+....2.8%)............3.188%.......Brazil, Zambia, Angola, Malawi, Comoros, Mayotte 15°-20°S............19,235..........132,165..(+......3.2%)...........4,794..(+....4.8%)............3.627%.......Bolivia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Fiji 20°-25°S............11,299............20,189..(+....15.5%)..............251..(+..15.7%)............1.243%.......Paraguay, Mauritius, Namibia, Botswana, Réunion 25°-30°S..............2,692............29,806..(+......2.8%)..............598..(+....7.0%)............2.006%.......Eswatini, Lesotho, Australia 30°-35°S............35,656..........608,566..(+......1.8%).........13,029..(+....4.5%)............2.141%.......Uruguay, South Africa 35°-40°S..........155,762..........724,738..(+......4.1%).........17,587..(+....5.4%)............2.427%.......Chile, Argentina 40°-45°S.................114..............1,324..(+......1.5%)................22..(+....0.0%)............1.662%.......New Zealand 45°-50°S.....................0 50°-55°S...................14...................13..(+......0.0%) ...............3-Day Growth Rate Correlation (65°N-45°S) = .844 ...............Asterisks ("*") denote latitudinal bands with rising confirmed-case growth rates. ..........................................AUGUST 30, 2020 BY LATITUDE (OWID) ........................................================================ ......................Infectious...............Confirmed........................Deaths .........................Initial....................& 3-Day........................& 3-Day .Latitude........2.Weeks..............Growth Rate..................Growth Rate...............Mortality -----------......-------------......--------------------------......------------------------......------------------ 60°-65°N............72,756.......1,096,493..(+......1.4%).........23,492..(+....1.5%)............2.142%.......Iceland, Faroe Islands,Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, etc 55°-60°N.*.........24,515..........483,710..(+......1.2%).........51,419..(+....0.1%)..........10.630%.......Canada, UK, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania 50°-55°N............41,716..........562,657..(+......1.7%).........29,905..(+....0.3%)............5.315%.......Isle Of Man, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany 45°-50°N.*.......194,636..........937,947..(+......4.7%).........47,534..(+....0.7%)............5.068%.......France, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Guernsey, Ukraine, Minnesota 40°-45°N..........197,848.......2,767,946..(+......1.8%).......160,750..(+....0.3%)............5.808%.......Italy, Spain, Monaco, Kosovo, Guernsey, Mongolia,New York 35°-40°N..........269,780.......2,280,924..(+......2.6%).........47,881..(+....2.0%)............2.099%.......Portugal, Turkey, Tajikistan, China, Korea, Japan, Arkansas, California 30°-35°N..........284,445.......2,740,052..(+......2.5%).........74,605..(+....2.6%)............2.723%.......US, Morocco, Israel, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Texas 25°-30°N............89,846.......1,070,516..(+......1.8%).........19,534..(+....2.1%)............1.825%.......Bahamas, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, Nepal, Bhutan, Florida 20°-25°N.......1,355,338.......4,923,805..(+......5.6%).......136,653..(+....3.8%)............2.775%.......Mexico, Cuba, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, India 15°-20°N............53,964..........295,496..(+......3.8%)...........7,955..(+....3.3%)............2.692%.......Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Yemen, Thailand, Hawaii 10°-15°N............55,177..........330,804..(+......4.4%)...........7,133..(+....5.3%)............2.156%.......El Salvador, Sudan, Viet Nam, Philippines ..5°-10°N............70,431..........390,149..(+......4.1%)...........5,849..(+....3.0%)............1.499%.......Panama, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sri Lanka ..0°-..5°N..........116,474..........687,567..(+......4.4%).........32,344..(+....2.8%)............4.704%.......Columbia, Guyana, Malaysia, Singapore ..0°-..5°S.*.........61,464..........342,804..(+......3.8%).........14,775..(+....3.2%)............4.310%.......Ecuador, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Indonesia ..5°-10°S..........129,882..........640,430..(+......4.2%).........28,633..(+....1.7%)............4.471%.......Peru, Timor-Leste, Tanzania 10°-15°S..........611,083.......3,866,556..(+......3.5%).......121,034..(+....2.4%)............3.130%.......Brazil, Zambia, Angola, Malawi, Comoros, Mayotte 15°-20°S............19,521..........140,759..(+......2.8%)...........5,348..(+....4.7%)............3.799%.......Bolivia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Fiji 20°-25°S............12,448............25,592..(+......9.8%)..............379..(+..17.7%)............1.481%.......Paraguay, Mauritius, Namibia, Botswana, Réunion 25°-30°S..............1,497............31,108..(+......1.5%)..............722..(+....8.1%)............2.321%.......Eswatini, Lesotho, Australia 30°-35°S............30,091..........624,121..(+......1.1%).........14,025..(+....3.5%)............2.247%.......Uruguay, South Africa 35°-40°S.*.......199,712..........800,018..(+......5.0%).........19,486..(+....4.5%)............2.436%.......Chile, Argentina 40°-45°S.*..............123..............1,378..(+......2.0%)................22..(+....0.0%)............1.597%.......New Zealand 45°-50°S.....................0 50°-55°S...................55...................13..(+......0.0%) ...............3-Day Growth Rate Correlation (65°N-45°S) = .704 ...............Asterisks ("*") denote latitudinal bands with rising confirmed-case growth rates. ..........................................SEPTEMBER 06, 2020 BY LATITUDE (OWID) ........................................=================================== ......................Infectious...............Confirmed........................Deaths .........................Initial....................& 3-Day........................& 3-Day .Latitude........2.Weeks..............Growth Rate..................Growth Rate...............Mortality -----------......-------------......--------------------------......------------------------......------------------ 60°-65°N............77,976.......1,133,845..(+...1.4%).........24,245..(+..1.5%)............2.138%.......Iceland, Faroe Islands,Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, etc 55°-60°N.*.........33,753..........500,164..(+...1.5%).........51,506..(+..0.1%)..........10.298%.......Canada, UK, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania 50°-55°N............42,303..........584,426..(+...1.6%).........30,081..(+..0.2%)............5.147%.......Isle Of Man, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany 45°-50°N.*.......271,039.......1,038,607..(+...5.3%).........48,616..(+..0.9%)............4.681%.......France, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Guernsey, Ukraine, Minnesota 40°-45°N.*.......223,933.......2,913,188..(+...1.9%).......162,396..(+..0.4%)............5.575%.......Italy, Spain, Monaco, Kosovo, Guernsey, Mongolia,New York 35°-40°N..........262,986.......2,406,400..(+...2.4%).........50,242..(+..2.1%)............2.088%.......Portugal, Turkey, Tajikistan, China, Korea, Japan, Arkansas, California 30°-35°N..........306,220.......2,892,386..(+...2.4%).........78,662..(+..2.2%)............2.720%.......US, Morocco, Israel, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Texas 25°-30°N.*.........88,141.......1,120,211..(+...1.9%).........20,606..(+..1.7%)............1.839%.......Bahamas, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, Nepal, Bhutan, Florida 20°-25°N.......1,497,883.......5,559,910..(+...5.5%).......149,545..(+..4.7%)............2.690%.......Mexico, Cuba, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, India 15°-20°N............40,994..........314,616..(+...2.9%)...........8,501..(+..3.1%)............2.702%.......Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Yemen, Thailand, Hawaii 10°-15°N............29,628..........357,358..(+...3.0%)...........7,647..(+..3.0%)............2.140%.......El Salvador, Sudan, Viet Nam, Philippines ..5°-10°N............59,731..........421,026..(+...3.3%)...........6,246..(+..3.0%)............1.484%.......Panama, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sri Lanka ..0°-..5°N..........121,241..........748,724..(+...3.6%).........34,941..(+..2.4%)............4.667%.......Columbia, Guyana, Malaysia, Singapore ..0°-..5°S............68,502..........372,082..(+...3.7%).........15,690..(+..2.9%)............4.217%.......Ecuador, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Indonesia ..5°-10°S............97,237..........684,726..(+...3.1%).........29,713..(+..1.5%)............4.339%.......Peru, Timor-Leste, Tanzania 10°-15°S..........560,322.......4,144,644..(+...3.1%).......126,792..(+..2.0%)............3.059%.......Brazil, Zambia, Angola, Malawi, Comoros, Mayotte 15°-20°S............12,725..........147,413..(+...2.1%)...........5,831..(+..3.5%)............3.956%.......Bolivia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Fiji 20°-25°S.*.........21,310............32,769..(+.12.7%)..............517..(+13.4%)............1.578%.......Paraguay, Mauritius, Namibia, Botswana, Réunion 25°-30°S.*...........2,007............32,174..(+...1.6%)..............873..(+10.8%)............2.713%.......Eswatini, Lesotho, Australia 30°-35°S............28,417..........638,553..(+...1.0%).........14,824..(+..2.7%)............2.321%.......Uruguay, South Africa 35°-40°S..........204,583..........882,303..(+...4.7%).........21,236..(+..4.5%)............2.407%.......Chile, Argentina 40°-45°S...................23..............1,421..(+...0.9%)................24..(+..9.1%)............1.689%.......New Zealand 45°-50°S.....................0 50°-55°S...................55...................13..(+...0.0%) ...............3-Day Growth Rate Correlation (65°N-45°S) = .518 ...............Asterisks ("*") denote latitudinal bands with rising confirmed-case growth rates. ..........................................SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 BY LATITUDE (OWID) ........................................==================================== ......................Infectious...............Confirmed...........................Deaths .........................Initial....................& 3-Day...........................& 3-Day .Latitude........2.Weeks..............Growth Rate.....................Growth Rate...............Mortality -----------......-------------......--------------------------......----------------------------......--------------- 60°-65°N.*.........86,310.......1,174,573..(+...2.0%).........25,004..(+.......2.1%)............2.129%.......Iceland, Faroe Islands,Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, etc 55°-60°N.*.........69,352..........527,947..(+...2.5%).........51,609..(+.......0.1%)............9.775%.......Canada, UK, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania 50°-55°N.*.........70,397..........613,947..(+...2.2%).........30,253..(+.......0.3%)............4.928%.......Isle Of Man, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany 45°-50°N.*.......310,993.......1,158,266..(+...5.4%).........49,726..(+.......1.0%)............4.293%.......France, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Guernsey, Ukraine, Minnesota 40°-45°N..........305,785.......3,070,884..(+...1.9%).......164,042..(+.......0.3%)............5.342%.......Italy, Spain, Monaco, Kosovo, Guernsey, Mongolia,New York 35°-40°N..........249,222.......2,514,399..(+...2.2%).........52,254..(+.......1.8%)............2.078%.......Portugal, Turkey, Tajikistan, China, Korea, Japan, Arkansas, California 30°-35°N.*.......343,216.......3,047,861..(+...2.5%).........82,205..(+.......2.0%)............2.697%.......US, Morocco, Israel, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Texas 25°-30°N..........100,030.......1,166,070..(+...1.9%).........21,726..(+.......2.0%)............1.863%.......Bahamas, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, Nepal, Bhutan, Florida 20°-25°N.......1,434,147.......6,261,968..(+...5.3%).......159,583..(+.......3.4%)............2.548%.......Mexico, Cuba, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, India 15°-20°N............39,266..........331,137..(+...2.6%)...........8,900..(+.......1.9%)............2.688%.......Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Yemen, Thailand, Hawaii 10°-15°N.*........58,619..........386,046..(+...4.0%)...........8,294..(+.......4.7%)............2.148%.......El Salvador, Sudan, Viet Nam, Philippines ..5°-10°N............55,573..........451,748..(+...2.9%)...........6,632..(+.......2.4%)............1.468%.......Panama, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sri Lanka ..0°-..5°N..........108,365..........802,476..(+...3.0%).........37,504..(+.......1.9%)............4.674%.......Columbia, Guyana, Malaysia, Singapore ..0°-..5°S.*.........72,233..........396,307..(+...4.3%).........20,558..(+.......2.5%)............5.187%.......Ecuador, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Indonesia ..5°-10°S............83,332..........723,878..(+...2.9%).........30,620..(+.......1.2%)............4.230%.......Peru, Timor-Leste, Tanzania 10°-15°S..........463,866.......4,338,566..(+...2.8%).......131,837..(+.......2.1%)............3.039%.......Brazil, Zambia, Angola, Malawi, Comoros, Mayotte 15°-20°S.*.........12,582..........155,190..(+...2.2%)...........7,770..(+.......2.2%)............5.007%.......Bolivia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Fiji 20°-25°S............14,272............39,562..(+...8.0%)..............632..(+.......7.8%)............1.597%.......Paraguay, Mauritius, Namibia, Botswana, Réunion 25°-30°S..............1,168............32,902..(+...1.0%)..............934..(+.......2.8%)............2.839%.......Eswatini, Lesotho, Australia 30°-35°S............25,259..........649,994..(+...0.9%).........15,472..(+.......1.7%)............2.380%.......Uruguay, South Africa 35°-40°S..........187,965..........968,356..(+...4.5%).........23,101..(+.......4.3%)............2.386%.......Chile, Argentina 40°-45°S...................32..............1,446..(+...0.3%)................24..(+.......0.0%)............1.660%.......New Zealand 45°-50°S.....................0 50°-55°S...................14...................13..(+...0.0%) ...............3-Day Growth Rate Correlation (65°N-45°S) = .718 ...............Asterisks (""*"") denote latitudinal bands with rising confirmed-case growth rates. ..........................................SEPTEMBER 20, 2020 BY LATITUDE (OWID) ........................................==================================== ......................Infectious...............Confirmed...........................Deaths .........................Initial....................& 3-Day...........................& 3-Day .Latitude........2.Weeks..............Growth Rate.....................Growth Rate...............Mortality -----------......-------------......--------------------------......----------------------------......--------------- 60°-65°N............90,458.......1,217,560..(+...1.6%).........25,865..(+.......1.7%)............2.124%.......Iceland, Faroe Islands,Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, etc 55°-60°N.*.........79,977..........563,034..(+...3.1%).........51,794..(+.......0.2%)............9.199%.......Canada, UK, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania 50°-55°N.*.........76,319..........650,578..(+...2.6%).........30,470..(+.......0.3%)............4.684%.......Isle Of Man, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany 45°-50°N.*.......394,600.......1,304,481..(+...6.3%).........51,201..(+.......1.3%)............3.925%.......France, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Guernsey, Ukraine, Minnesota 40°-45°N.*.......249,238.......3,248,012..(+...2.0%).......166,144..(+.......0.4%)............5.115%.......Italy, Spain, Monaco, Kosovo, Guernsey, Mongolia,New York 35°-40°N..........267,458.......2,638,049..(+...2.2%).........54,813..(+.......1.7%)............2.078%.......Portugal, Turkey, Tajikistan, China, Korea, Japan, Arkansas, California 30°-35°N..........320,514.......3,228,565..(+...2.4%).........86,056..(+.......2.0%)............2.665%.......US, Morocco, Israel, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Texas 25°-30°N..........106,864.......1,214,855..(+...1.9%).........22,788..(+.......1.6%)............1.876%.......Bahamas, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, Nepal, Bhutan, Florida 20°-25°N.......1,484,974.......6,965,725..(+...4.6%).......170,963..(+.......3.1%)............2.454%.......Mexico, Cuba, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, India 15°-20°N.*.........46,213..........350,063..(+...2.8%)...........9,372..(+.......2.8%)............2.677%.......Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Yemen, Thailand, Hawaii 10°-15°N............53,118..........416,261..(+...3.1%)...........9,061..(+.......2.7%)............2.177%.......El Salvador, Sudan, Viet Nam, Philippines ..5°-10°N............54,692..........477,987..(+...2.6%)...........7,029..(+.......2.7%)............1.471%.......Panama, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sri Lanka ..0°-..5°N..........114,905..........854,810..(+...2.8%).........38,843..(+.......1.5%)............4.544%.......Columbia, Guyana, Malaysia, Singapore ..0°-..5°S............83,350..........432,609..(+...4.0%).........21,615..(+.......2.1%)............4.996%.......Ecuador, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Indonesia ..5°-10°S............89,051..........763,917..(+...2.5%).........31,396..(+.......1.0%)............4.110%.......Peru, Timor-Leste, Tanzania 10°-15°S..........518,325.......4,552,351..(+...2.5%).......137,191..(+.......1.8%)............3.014%.......Brazil, Zambia, Angola, Malawi, Comoros, Mayotte 15°-20°S..............7,900..........162,002..(+...1.6%)...........8,075..(+.......1.4%)............4.985%.......Bolivia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Fiji 20°-25°S............15,862............46,267..(+...7.0%)..............770..(+.....10.8%)............1.664%.......Paraguay, Mauritius, Namibia, Botswana, Réunion 25°-30°S.................867............33,520..(+...0.8%)..............981..(+.......2.4%)............2.927%.......Eswatini, Lesotho, Australia 30°-35°S.*.........28,673..........661,560..(+...1.0%).........15,986..(+.......1.5%)............2.416%.......Uruguay, South Africa 35°-40°S..........211,599.......1,058,319..(+...4.1%).........24,959..(+.......4.1%)............2.358%.......Chile, Argentina 40°-45°S.*................16..............1,464..(+...0.4%)................25..(+.......0.0%)............1.708%.......New Zealand 45°-50°S.....................0 50°-55°S...................55...................13..(+...0.0%) ...............3-Day Growth Rate Correlation (65°N-45°S) = .647 "...............Asterisks (""*"") denote latitudinal bands with rising confirmed-case growth rates." The latitudinal models are working again (in their own way). For the Northern Hemisphere, a new band of maximum impact formed at 45°-50°N in the last 14 days, including the nations of France, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Guernsey, Ukraine; and US states such as Minnesota, North Dakota, and Montana. The old band of maximum COVID-19 impact in the Northern Hemisphere (which migrated south, ultimately settling at 10°-15° North, then migrated northward to 20°-25° North, still sits at 20°-25° North but is weakening. That would include Mexico, Cuba, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and India. For the Southern Hemisphere, the band of maximum COVID-19 impact remains at 20°-25° South and is weakening. Nations here include Paraguay, Mauritius, Namibia, Botswana, and Réunion. A second band sits at 35°-40° South is active. This includes Chile and Argentina For the tropics, 0°-5° South is still active. This band includes Columbia, Guyana, Malaysia, and Singapore 3-Day Growth Rate Correlations are concluded to be both 1) real, and 2) likely indicative of data quality. Revisions and restatements that are performed in lump-sums will skew the correlation. COVID-19 gets more deadly when it becomes more contagious, less deadly as it becomes less contagious. One can speculate on viral dosage and seasonality for the link, but the link is definitely there. Seven latitudinal bands (35 degrees in total) this week showed increasing confirmed-case growth rates: four in the Northern Hemisphere, two in the southern Hemisphere, and one at the equator. .............PORTION OF THE GLOBE .................... INCREASING IN ..........CONFIRMED-CASE GROWTH ......=========================== ......07/06/20-07/12/20......35° total ......07/13/20-07/19/20......65° total ......07/20/20-07/26/20......35° total ......07/27/20-08/02/20......25° total ......08/03/20-08/09/20......35° total ......08/10/20-08/16/20......30° total ......08/17/20-08/23/20......10° total ......08/24/20-08/30/20......25° total ......08/31/20-09/06/20......30° total ......09/07/20-09/13/20......40° total ......09/14/20-09/20/20......35° total (This is a weekly run, the next will be for September 27h) ...........................................UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ...........................======================================= ...............Infectious................Confirmed..............................Deaths ..................Initial.....................& 3-Day.............................& 3-Day .Date.......2.Weeks...............Growth Rate.......................Growth Rate.............Mortality -------......-----------......-----------------------------......----------------------------......------------ 01/23..................9.....................1 02/03..................8...................11..(+.....83.3%) 03/04...........2,760.................108..(+.....71.4%)..................6.............................5.556% 03/13.........41,221..............1,264..(+...167.8%)................36..(+.....89.5%).......2.848% 03/20.......137,074............10,442..(+...198.1%)..............150..(+...158.6%).......1.437% 03/29.......320,682..........103,321..(+.....62.5%)...........1,668..(+.....88.7%).......1.614% 04/30.......356,811i......1,003,974..(+.......7.8%).........52,428..(+.......9.3%).......5.222% 09/10.......542,386i......6,359,720..(+.......1.3%).......190,815..(+.......1.0%).......3.000% 09/11.......547,332i......6,397,227..(+.......1.5%).......191,789..(+.......1.4%).......2.998% 09/12.......551,832i......6,445,288..(+.......1.9%).......193,016..(+.......1.8%).......2.995% 09/13.......555,506i......6,486,108..(+.......2.0%).......193,701..(+.......1.5%).......2.986% 09/14.......558,301i......6,519,979..(+.......1.9%).......194,079..(+.......1.2%).......2.977% 09/15.......560,157i......6,554,820..(+.......1.7%).......194,530..(+.......0.8%).......2.968% 09/16.......561,007i......6,606,293..(+.......1.9%).......195,937..(+.......1.2%).......2.966% 09/17.......560,138i......6,630,891..(+.......1.7%).......196,802..(+.......1.4%).......2.968% 09/18.......556,871i......6,674,458..(+.......1.8%).......197,633..(+.......1.6%).......2.961% 09/19.......550,988i......6,724,667..(+.......1.8%).......198,589..(+.......1.4%).......2.953% 09/20.......542,970i......6,764,962..(+.......2.0%).......199,258..(+.......1.2%).......2.945% 09/21.......533,382i......6,804,814..(+.......2.0%).......199,509..(+.......0.9%).......2.932% 09/22.......522,479i......6,857,967..(+.......2.0%).......199,881..(+.......0.7%).......2.915% 09/23.......510,218i......6,896,274..(+.......1.9%).......200,807..(+.......0.8%).......2.912% 09/24.......497,011i......6,934,204..(+.......1.9%).......201,909..(+.......1.2%).......2.912% 09/25.......482,897i......6,978,417..(+.......1.8%).......202,810..(+.......1.5%).......2.906% The confirmed-case growth rate (3-day) is seen to be in a pattern of increase for the United States. Confirmed-case 3-day growth drop to 1.8% (1.9% yesterday, 1.8% seven days ago) as 44,213 new confirmed cases are added (record was 78,427). US deaths 3-day growth rate rises to 1.5% (1.2% prior) on 901 deaths. Cumulative case-mortality for the US hits a new low of 2.906%. Daily mortality for the United States was 2.038% (2.905% yesterday). Seven-day mortality is 1.703% (1.684% yesterday, 2.108% seven days ago). Given the highest cumulative mortality for the US was 6.067% (May 16th), reduction in mortality for the US is running in the ~ 70% percent range. The US infectious model estimate drops to 482,897 spreaders (594,304 yesterday). California climbs from 2nd to first, to lead all states with 37,717 spreaders out and about (29,647 yesterday). Florida rises from 3rd to second, at 35,645 (29,162 prior), Wisconsin climbs from 4th to third with 34,723 (vs 26,276), Illinois rises from 5th to fourth at 32,615 (23,566 yesterday), and Texas goes from 1st to fifth, with 39,022 (111,006 spreaders prior). Historically, the California leads the world in accumulated confirmed cases (794,040), Texas has the second largest count (728,552), Florida is the third largest (695,887), New York is fourth (453,755), and Georgia is fifth (312,514 cases since COVID-19 arrived in their state). For US Confirmed-Case 3-day growth, COVID-19's fastest multipliers in the US are Montana (Confirmed cases grew 8.1% over the last 3 days), North Dakota (7.4%), South Dakota (7.1%), Wisconsin (6.3%), and Utah (5.4%). On Case Mortality rates New Jersey is at the top (7.965% cumulative mortality), Connecticut is second (7.954%), Massachusetts third (7.239%), New York fourth (5.608%), and New Hampshire fifth (5.445%). .............................................................COVID-19-C ....................................................================== "COVID-19-B" and "COVID-19-C" are (as mentioned above) my own (robry825) conventions for differing statistical patterns within global COVID-19 reporting, interpreted as differing strains/mutations/clades of the Coronavirus within the global landscape. The original virus(termed by me as "garden variety COVID-19") was later termed "D614" within the general bio-science community and the research, while COVID-19-B was later termed "G614". (see www.pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32374903/). The "COVID-19-C" statistical pattern has yet (to the best of my knowledge) been termed and described, though its presence statistically has become solid... first in the nation of Yemen, then in its subsequent emergence into the middle East. South Carolina was the United States first COVID-19-C prospect, it is also the first state to loose its COVID-19-C signature (it is weakening now). South Carolina will likely be dropped from the list in a couple of days if there are no signs of return by then. Arkansas had cumulative mortality bottomed July 27th at 1.034%, and has since risen to 1.602% September 15th (1.584% today). Daily mortality was 2.230% (1.565% prior). The 7-day rate was 1.586%. Day-to-day fluctuations are unstable, indicating that COVID-19-C has not yet become anchored. Infectious spreaders are estimated at 14,444. ....................Fastest COVID-19 Growth States, last 30 days ====================================================== 90.2%......North Dakota (From 10,457 to 19,885 confirmed cases) 73.4%......South Dakota (From 11,851 to 20,554 confirmed cases) 70.4%......Montana (From 6,785 to 11,564 confirmed cases) 68.7%......Hawaii (From 6,984 to 11,779 confirmed cases) 56.7%......West Virginia (From 9,540 to 14,953 confirmed cases) 54.1%......Missouri (From 78,062 to 120,298 confirmed cases) 52.2%......Wisconsin (From 77,092 to 117,329 confirmed cases) 50.5%......Oklahoma (From 54,838 to 82,520 confirmed cases) 47.1%......Wyoming (From 3,684 to 5,420 confirmed cases) 43.9%......Kentucky (From 45,230 to 65,066 confirmed cases) For the past 30 days, The virus has been generally migrating to the northern states, likely on seasonality. North Dakota is the top state today for 30-day viral spread, growing from 10,457 cases on August 26th, to 19,885 cases on September 25th, an increase of 90%. These are the states where COVID-19 was strongest in the US the last 30 days, spreading the fastest person to person. States - this is your scoreboard, telling you who are the weakest states in the nation. Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin... All four of you are also the top-5 on today's list of top 3-day growth-rate states. If you are on this list, take warning for your state. Maintain your vigilance, and do your part: * Maintain 6' minimal social distancing. * Wear your mask when out. * Drive your own car if at all possible. * Use grocery delivery to drop off at your doorstep, or curbside delivery to your trunk. * Avoid sitting within 6 feet of another on the subway or bus and beware of germs left behind by others. * Avoid crowds. * Make as few trips out as humanly possible. * Don't touch anything in the store that you don't buy. * Wash hands anytime you come in. * Use hand-sanitizer whenever you touch any object. * Don't touch yourself above the shoulders. * Sterilize the mail when it comes. * Beware germs that may be harbored in newspapers, magazines, and books. * Be careful of sports. Everyone who touches the ball, gets the virus. At the office: * Avoid the coffee pot and snack table. They could come with a little something extra, that you don't know about. * Clean your own desk / cubicle / space. Request no janitorial. * Take hand sanitizer with you for your desk, as well as on your person. * Beware doorknobs / elevator buttons / railings. Think as contaminated and use hand sanitizer afterwards. * Meet coworkers by phone instead of in person. * Eat own lunch (brought with you) at your desk rather than in the lunch room. * Avoid break rooms, meeting rooms, common sitting areas, etc. * Best in common rooms to face the same direction as coworkers so breaths drift toward backs of heads, not front. * Avoid handshakes, high fives, and the like. * Managers, use toilet disinfectant dispensers like www.amazon.com/Antibacterial-Automatic-Disinfectant-Scrub-Free-Bathroom/dp/B07F8MHGKJ -Rob |
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