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Msg  323 of 359  at  3/14/2019 12:56:19 PM  by

lumpygravy


 In response to msg 322 by  lumpygravy
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Re: National General Holdings NGHCO

Just a quick FYI....from BRileyFBR today (very brief clip)....
 
Growth and EPS Visibility High for Defensive Franchise—Reiterate Buy
and Raise PT from $31 to $33

Summary and Recommendation
We recently hosted meetings with NGHC's management and institutional investors and came
away with takeaways that support our view of improved 2019E and 2020E EPS. We are
increasing 2019E EPS, from $2.55 to $2.65, and 2020E EPS, from $2.85 to $3.00, given an
improved outlook in both the P/C and A&H segments. We maintain our Buy rating (given the
defensive nature of NGHC's business), and we are increasing our PT, from $31 to $33, reflecting
an 11.0x multiple on 2020E EPS of $3.00/share, compared to peers at 13.1x. We believe this
target, which reflects 35%+ upside and a 2.0x control discount on P/E, is achievable. We also
note NGHC shares are down ~9% over the past week (vs. flat for the S&P 500), creating an
unusually attractive entry point.


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