Re: The sky is not falling
I think the future of TGA rests on their ability to get those PSCs renegotiated with more favorable terms allowing them to be profitable in a world of 20-30 buck oil. I don't see oil getting much above 50 in the next 10 years... anytime it pops its head above that level the Frackers will push it back down... There is so much oil in the world today I don't see it ever running out...
If they can get the PSCs renegotiated and I hear they are close, than that should be worth a buck on the PPS hopefully... Today TGA is basically worth whatever value you put on it's 45M P2 Reserves... the Working Capital offsets the Liabilities and leaves you with that single asset. Today Mr. Market thinks those reserves in the hands of TGA are worth less than a buck a bbl... probably because at 40 buck oil they only generate a couple of bucks of free cash flow which is entirely consumed by their G&A...
I would like to see them get these PSCs renegotiated then start doing some JVs with stronger players, sooner rather than later they need to be bot out... hopefully for at least US$ 2.60 per share...
If the PSC deal gets deal this is a real possibility...