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Re: Jefferies ESGCT19 TitlesRemember this is still at Liver GT so you need to get them high enough to maximize long term durability or at-least functional levels. Here is the math someone posted a while back: Quibble with SMs 1/7 number but the math is simply Cell death % = R Number of years = n Reduction Factor (n) = (1 - R) ^ n To get something different you need to have a survival advantage for modified cells. I don't see how you can get more cells since there was no editing so no stem cells could be producing modified cells. But if, for some odd, unspecified reason the modified cells have a survival advantage (they are of a rarified type and not "average" liver cells or modifying them conveys an advantage) then 'R' in the above equation is simply higher. ________Years ________Before ________Reduced by 1/R ____ <20% ---------------------- 6 _______9 7_______11 8 _______13 9 _______14 So if you are STARTING at 100% normal then you should get 11 years above 20% normal. But if you start the same patient with the same treatment at only 50% normal then it's 0.50 * (1 - R) ^ n which gets you to <20% in only 6 years for 1/7 deaths per year. This is why getting patients up into that 100 - 150% of normal range at the start is so important. With BMRN's solution those patients only getting to 50% after treatment will get at best roughly 1/2 the time (value!!!) of those who got to 100%. Of course BMRN is seeing decay even faster, so they have a problem that indicates their modified cells have lower survival rates than unmodified ones and lower than SGMO's, at least initially. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
135168 | Re: Jefferies ESGCT19 Titles | rynotheknife | 2 | 10/21/2019 6:18:46 PM |
135222 | Re: Jefferies ESGCT19 Titles | spaddy | 4 | 10/22/2019 12:16:22 PM |