Re: How Novavax Is Keeping Up With the Big Players in the Coronavirus Vaccine Race
If this was about flu I would sell The company in a heartbeat. But this is a unique opportunity with CoViD that is costing them (read shsreholders$ nothing. Itís a free spin at the wheel of fortune. And unlike any opportunity Iíve ever seen, itís a couple of contracts signed and marketing is done. Contracts for two billion doses. Pharma canít come along and unsign their deals. The deals are signed. Add to that the low cost of goods and you get to a calculation that shows if you make two billion doses you sell two billion doses. Low margins yes, but with an infrastructure that cost nothing all you do now is cash checks. Profits on first 500million at 2$per and profits on the next 1.5 billion at 50 cents average. They sell every dose they can make. All that remains to be seen is them yielding into inventory a few million doses per week this fall and 5-10 million per week by winter/Q1. It they can show operational success this goes ballistic. I donít see contenders stopping the product that is both the cheapest and the best.
Like I said if this discussion was about the flu business Iíd go with the flow, take the deal. Iíve said it many times. This is a different beast and itís not even a long term prospect itís 2 quarters away. The technology risk is low, the anti is paid for, play the hand.