Investor frustration is palpable. I get it. We have a deep understanding of the potential to make a significant impact, our assets are on the table, and it feels like the opportunity is slipping away. For those who feel the opportunity is slipping through the cracks, I challenge you to focus on the data. 90% of the global population has not had a single shot of any vaccine. It feels differently here because the US has strong armed all vaccine raw materials and supply from the rest of the globe through DPA. We are floating in vaccine here and will likely be approaching some level of herd immunity by the end of Q2. Pfizer and Moderna own this market for now, but we have already sold 110M doses into this market...our work here is done for the acute phase. Europe is a different story. Itís a disaster. They know it. They bet BIG on AZN and turned over a 15. Now they are banking on Pfizer to save them. Pfizer is preoccupied with the US until Q3. Moderna has limited capacity. JNJ is behind in production...to the extent they needed Merck to step in and help. Their situation echoes that of a large population across the planet.
We are in the early innings globally. Supply and production capacity challenges are not unique to Novavax. Pfizer is crushing it right now. They are gobbling up all they can while they can. I see SA bought 20M recently. Itís not anymore effective against their variant than 2373. So Why? Availability...It trumps right now and they have the most capacity of anything approved.
AZN had the biggest order book at 3B but the world is afraid of that jab right now. Itís a desperation shot. Itís also an opportunity.
Moderna is limited by Lonza. JNJ will make a dent but they are slow out of the gates. I also get the feeling they are not interested in a long term multi year booster strategy. This is likely a public goodwill acute stage mitigation play for them.
The world needs 10B doses and we are approaching 700M doses 4 months in.
A delay in EUA until late April is not significant. Iím sorry...itís just not.
US data is imminent. They likely have the data and are scrubbing. I call my trial site every Monday because I know they visit with Novavax every Friday. They would never schedule my crossover, but recently did.
Fauci knows the variants are a real concern. Itís all you hear about in the press. Subtle conditioning of the public. Sweet write up on CNN, mentions in the media increasingly popping up. Follow the signs.
The name is grossly undervalued. Pricing 300M presale at $16 with a 3x price/sales is insulting. CVAC has a higher MC right now. http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html
No recognition for licensing, or COVAX. COVAX 1B is massive. I think they could be pricing $20 for developed and $10 for developing.
Read the language on the pricing on committed vs optional
Even if only $2 - $3 per dose profit after SII, itís significant and not priced in. Speculative. Which leads into why the market is letting the name languish. Transparency on pricing is not there. Transparency on available doses is not there. Transparency on production volume is not there. Itís not so much an efficacy story anymore with this name. Itís an execution story.
The US interim will likely be well received. However... EU order will move the crowd for sure as it adds significant weight to the MC.
The GSK and Baxter moves are under appreciated. EUAs will potentially domino.. They will be positive catalysts, but production and delivery news will move the needle. UK and US doses will be delivered in close proximity. Follow the politics.
Iím not a patient person...but I understand what this is. Iíve invested in a high beta name that was on the verge of collapse 12 months ago. They are trying to scale at an unprecedented rate while simultaneously bringing a superior product through numerous regulatory hurdles in multiple countries. They cannot afford an AZN mistake. They cannot afford to piss off regulators and BP. They are too close. I get frustrated like the best of them, but I have to give them some grace. This is a David and Goliath moment for this company and they are quietly picking up some smooth stones.