I believe that, to the extent Trump is not disqualified from standing under the 14th Amendment, Trump will be the Republican nominee for President next year. I have a theory that Trump being disqualified in a number of purple states might make it more likely that he could eventually become President. This is the way I see it.

 

I do not believe Trump can win in a straightforward election. The MAGA base will blindly support him, but the silent majority cannot abide him. However, where Trump is banned from running, there will be another Republican on the ballot who is more electable. I foresee a hung electoral college where no candidate has an overall majority, and that will be used as an excuse for electoral votes for the other Republican to be transferred to Trump giving him a majority. This would be challenged in the Supreme Court, but I have no idea how they would rule.

 

Far better, of course, would be a nationwide disqualification, but it is very uncertain whether that can be achieved.