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OT: diabetes, heavy drinking is what caused Trump win
Was looking at a question in another fora, and constructed this post. Thought I would pass it along.
>>john_doe asks: How are you [liberals] ever going to survive the next 6 1/2 years??<<
I suspect the answer to that is that sane non-trump voters will survive Trump better than Trump voters. Trump voters are a curious lot.
For example, Trump voters ... certainly aren't taking care of their bodies, according to this graphic by The Economist.
Trump vote went up when a county's health measures went down.
Diabetes, lack of exercise, obesity, and heavy drinking together predicts a Trump vote.
... on November 15th Patrick Ruffini, a well-known pollster, offered a "challenge for data nerds" on Twitter: "Find the variable that can beat % of non-college whites in the electorate as a predictor of county swing to Trump."
With no shortage of nerds, The Economist has taken Mr Ruffini up on his challenge. Although we could not find a single factor whose explanatory power was greater than that of non-college whites, we did identify a group of them that did so collectively: an index of public-health statistics. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington has compiled county-level data on life expectancy and the prevalence of obesity, diabetes, heavy drinking and regular physical activity (or lack thereof). Together, these variables explain 43% of Mr Trump's gains over Mr Romney, just edging out the 41% accounted for by the share of non-college whites (see chart).
...
The data suggest that the ill may have been particularly susceptible to Mr Trump's message. According to our model, if diabetes were just 7% less prevalent in Michigan, Mr Trump would have gained 0.3 fewer percentage points there, enough to swing the state back to the Democrats. Similarly, if an additional 8% of people in Pennsylvania engaged in regular physical activity, and heavy drinking in Wisconsin were 5% lower, Mrs Clinton would be set to enter the White House. But such counter-factual predictions are always impossible to test. There is no way to rerun the election with healthier voters and compare the results.
The public-health crisis unfolding across white working-class America is hardly a secret. Last year Angus Deaton, a Nobel-prize-winning economist, found that the death rate among the country's middle-aged, less-educated white citizens had climbed since the 1990s, even as the rate for Hispanics and blacks of the same age had fallen. Drinking, suicide and a burgeoning epidemic of opioid abuse are widely seen as the most likely causes. Some argue that deteriorating health outcomes are linked to deindustrialisation: higher unemployment rates predict both lower life expectancy and support for Mr Trump, even after controlling for a bevy of demographic variables.
The net of all of this is that Trump voters are significantly more dependent on Obamacare and other government provided health services than others, and Trump has been busy destroying all of those benefits, as fast as he can. Hopefully, a useful consequene of that is that a lot of the Trump faithful will die off by the next election.