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ONCE earns 4.2 stars out of 5Management: ***** Spark has a great management in Jeff Marrazzo the business man and Kathrine High the brilliant scientist. I think they make a great combination. They have got a good pipeline of gene therapies. Their fist one is awaiting FDA approval with a PDUFA date of January 12, 2018. The next step will be navigating the commercial launch. Science: ***** Luxturna is their drug for RPE65 gene related inherited retinal diseases. It is awaiting approval. It has some impressive data and scored break through therapy designation from the FDA. Spark also has a good Hemophilia program with SPK-8011 for Hemophilia B. It also got break through therapy from the FDA. SPK-9001, their Hemophilia A program, had some good early data. The only disappointment was the early data on SPK-7001 for Choroideremia. I still give it 5 stars. You won't ever win them all, but Spark is now 3/4 in good programs. Financials: **** They had $238.6 mil before the secondary and raise around $380.4 million in the secondary. That gives them around $619 million total. They spent $74.4 million in Q2 as they ramp up for a possible commercial launch. That gives them about 8 quarters of cash. It will probably be less as cost ramp up to go commercial. Still plenty of cash for now. Risks: ** They have the typical risks related to all biotech. They face a lot of competition in their indications and they are always at risk of clinical failures. The Hemophilia space has gotten extremely crowed of late. They now have the added risks of launching the first commercial gene therapy. It is still yet to be determined how profitable, if at all, this will be. Potential: ***** Peak Sales for Luxturna vary widely, but I think $750 million is a reasonable target. That makes the peak market cap of Spark around $6 billion. That is a peak price of $176 based on current share count or 133% upside left. I am still giving it 5 stars since it can double of the next 5 years, but I would not be a buyer except on a pull back. My fair value price is $71. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
42 | Re: ONCE earns 4.2 stars out of 5 | longek71 | 3 | 10/12/2017 4:34:14 PM |