Re: Dividend speculation
I'd be surprised to see a buyback now at ~90% of BV. I still think NRZ has some choppy waters to navigate ahead, due mainly to falling interest rates (which creates worries in relation to prepayment risk). Would it be a "no brainer", as you state, to buyback shares at ~90% of BV? Sure. Would it be smarter to buy them back at 85%, 80%, 70%, etc.? Definitely. As stated, I believe there are choppy waters ahead and I think MN would agree. If they have bought back a small portion of shares I don't think it really means much besides taking a small gain. If they've spent a large amount of their allowance to buyback shares I would consider it telling that MN believes rates are approaching a bottom.
I don't believe rates are approaching a bottom, and due to MN's comments on the most recent quarterly call I think he agrees. My guess is NRZ purchased 0 shares during the most recent decline. I'm not saying they won't in the future if the stock price slips again (or they find themselves with too much cash).