Collapsing memory prices and uncertain global economy weigh on next year’s growth.
Total semiconductor sales include the combined sales of ICs, optoelectronics, sensors and actuators, and discretes (O-S-D) components. After soaring 25% to $614.7 billion in 2021, worldwide semiconductor sales are expected to increase 3% in 2022 and to a new record sales level of $636.0 billion this year (Figure 1).
Adverse conditions that stunted semiconductor sales in the second half of 2022 are expected to persist through the first half of next year. A global economy that is struggling through recession, soft demand for new enterprise and personal computers and smartphones, elevated chip inventory levels, and continued weakness in the memory IC market are expected to reduce total semiconductor sales by -5% next year. Total IC sales are forecast to decline -6% while combined sales of O-S-D devices are forecast to nudge slightly higher.
Following the cyclical down year in 2023, IC Insights forecasts semiconductor sales will rebound with three years of much stronger growth. By the end of the forecast period in 2026, semiconductor sales are forecast to climb to $843.6 billion, representing a CAGR of 6.5%.
In 2022, four major semiconductor product categories are forecast to post solid double-digit sales gains (Figure 2). The microcomponents and optoelectronics segments are expected to grow by single-digit amounts. Only the highly cyclical memory market is forecast to post a decline—a big -17% decline—that will weigh down overall IC and semiconductor market growth this year.
After Record Sales in 2022, Semi Sales Forecast to Fall -5% in 2023