my end of year review of AST | AST Message Board Posts

Asterias Biotherapeutics, Inc.

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Msg  133 of 136  at  12/31/2018 4:38:06 PM  by


my end of year review of AST

INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.


AST (market cap is $0.035B was $0.074B)

Asterias is a leading edge biotech company developing treatments for cancer, and for nerve damage. Cancer may be managed by managing the telomeres that control cell growth and death. Nerve damage may be mitigated by properly introducing stem cells. A few treatments are in clinical trials, which means they are beyond simple lab tests, but it also means they have yet to apply for or achieve FDA approval. A classic risk/reward trade because the risks of getting approval for innovative treatments is difficult, and the rewards are great because of a great unmet need with very little competition.

Someone else thought they were a good buy, too. BioTime is buying the company. Asterias has been an interesting mix of a spinoff from BioTime mixed with technology from Geron, both companies that I have at least some investing interest in. The buyout was a disappointment for me. My strategy is to buy stock in small, overlooked, positively disruptive companies, then sell when enough of the rest of the investment company values them much higher. A $100M revenue spike is marvelous for a $100M market cap company, but much less noticeable in the share price of a $1,000M market cap company. I should end up with some shares of the acquirer, but I’ll be proportionally less enthused.

DISCLOSURE LTBH by habit, but only holding the shares since 2014. Looks like it will be a short run under AST, though possibly lengthened under BTX.

(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog

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