"...The growth of Ambarella’s opaque business depends on their ability to displace formidable competitors like NVIDIA, all while making sure their security camera cash cow doesn’t run into problems. Similar to the last time we looked at Ambarella, we see a company that wants investors to bet on future possibilities as opposed to what’s happening today.
For those considering an investment in Ambarella, shares have lost 68% of their value since the beginning of the year compared to a Nasdaq loss of 27% over the same time frame. You’d be paying about the same price for shares as when we last looked at the company in 2020. Ambarella currently commands a simple valuation ratio of 8 which is about the average of the 190 companies we calculate this for in our tech stock catalog. Given what we’ve discussed today, we’ll be removing the company from our tech report and leaving it in our catalog as an “avoid.” If quarterly revenues crest the $100 million mark, that will mean their plan is working and we’ll come back for another look.
Promises of future prospects become less compelling in a bear market. Ambarella talks about numerous potential growth areas for the computer vision platform they’ve spent 5 years and 100s of million developing, while expecting automotive to be their dominant focus going into 2028. Investors need to trust the company can accomplish what they say in the face of stiff competition, economic indicators that are worsening, and a depleting capital base. This isn’t a firm we’d consider investing in given the current headwinds they’re facing."