Cheer up you Mopes!! | PTLA Message Board Posts

Portola Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

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Msg  6575 of 6618  at  11/7/2019 9:02:15 AM  by

ulingt


Cheer up you Mopes!!

So after a very good ER PTLA sinks close to 7%, something I had alluded to (to others, not on this board) would be a very real possibility, selling on the news.  Its not based on me knowing anything other than what I see virtually every day.  Especially as we saw the SP rising in the days and weeks up into the ER.  Had the ER been bad, this sell off would have been far worse.  It would appear its, in part due, to investors simply taking small profits as they bought up into the ER.  

I listened to the con call as well, and the QA afterwards.  There was zero downside, or concerns, all systems go.  This was a good ER, period.  

PTLA launched in the EU only this quarter in a handful of 'high potential' countries, perhaps a half dozen.  But this half dozen's market for Eliquis and Xarelto is equal to or greater than the US market.  And selling directly to hospitals (vs. thorough wholesalers) they did $2.7M, which exceeded expectations.  And BMY reported that Eliquis sales alone increased 30% over the same 9 months last year.  One year ago, PTLA would reference the 117,000 NOAC patients in the US  that were hospitalized with major bleeds.  That's the market for Andexxa.  Now, with the increase of the NOAC use, that number is now 150,000.  So more hospitals stocking (and using) Andexxa, at a faster rate than their own guidance, while the NOAC market itself explodes, combined with a very successful, albeit small, launch in Europe. 

On Novemeber  11 they have some type of Investment day and they promise to provide more detail about the EU launch and plans.  I don't see them going it alone in the EU, so there is still the hope, if not anticipation that they will announce at some point a partnership in the EU.  But I have no idea when something like that happens.  A lot of moving parts.

But as much as I may be disappointed in the sell off, I actually have more confidence in there eventual success as they continue to grow, and execute on the plan.  There is certainly more clarity, around the market adoption and more importantly the trends.  Interstingly, though they brought on board over 125, maybe closer to 150 new hospitals this quarter, they are sticking with their linear guidance of 100 per quarter.  Under committ, over perform.  The new CEO hasn't a mistep yet. 

I can say this. These companies that make the leap from clinical to commercial, simply are not being rewarded for their success to the extent you would expect or hope, and get hammered if they uninspire. 

Below are two quotes taken from the con call.

A second driver of growth is the large and growing Factor Xa inhibitor market globally. For the 12 months ending September of 2019 approximately 5.5 million patients in the United States were taking apixaban or rivaroxaban, (Eliquis and Zarelto) of these approximately 150,000 patients were hospitalized with serious life threatening bleeds. In Europe, we estimate that there are over 5 million patients taking apixaban or rivaroxaban in our Wave 1 countries and this number is continuing to grow. Just last week, Bristol-Myers Squibb reported 30% demand growth for Eliquis over the third quarter last year. With the underlying market growth combined with label expansion plans and the future genericization of Factor Xa inhibitors, we estimate that by 2025 over 700,000 patients (WOW!) will need Factor Xa reversal in the United States and Europe.

At the end of the third quarter, approximately 550 hospitals in the U.S. had ordered Andexxa. This was our second consecutive quarter of incremental hospital add that exceeded our initial expectation. Along with the increasing new account adds existing accounts continue to show strong pull through the 76% of sales in the quarter coming from utilization or reorders compared to 74% in the previous quarter. This is an important metric because it reflects demand and significant pull through in hospitals, where Andexxa is being used to treat patients.


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
6576 Re: Cheer up you Mopes!! JoeFlow 0 11/7/2019 9:36:44 AM






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