Estimates for 3Q | PTLA Message Board Posts

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Msg  6490 of 6521  at  9/18/2019 10:46:52 AM  by

MarkD


 In response to msg 6489 by  Keller
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Re: Estimates for 3Q

Thank you, but in full disclosure my prior estimates were well off target.

The VA deal is a bit tricky for the reasons listed below:

1. What is the price? Unlike Medicare, the VA can and does negotiate drug pricing, therefore, it is hard to know what price PTLA and the VA agreed upon. Did they get specialty distributor pricing like that of AB, Cardinal, and McKesson, European pricing, or an even better price structure?

2. Yes 170 VA can add AndexXa, what we don’t know is how many will or have already done so. For example, Madigan hospital in Tacoma, Washington has had AndexXa almost since its approval (according to the AndexXa locator map).

3. What is the average opening order and what type of usage will VA hospitals experience?

Given the above unknowns, I will be keeping my estimate for 3Q at $33.6m for total AndexXa sales until we have more clarity. As always, I would welcome being wrong on the low side.

With that said, I am a firm believer with every hospital add and every AndexXa use, the pressure is building for those hospitals that haven’t added. Deals like the VA agreement, guidelines from the likes of ACC and the 15 other guidelines recommending AndexXa’s use, and Sentinel Alert #61 issued by JCAHO all put increasing pressure hospitals and hospital systems to add and use the only FDA approved reversal agent for rivaroxaban and apixaban.


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