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CS Opines on PTLA and Andexxa SalesRatingNEUTRAL [V]Price (17-Jul-19, US$)25.89Target price (US$)35.0052-week price range (US$)41.75 - 15.46Market cap(US$ m)1,763Enterprise value (US$ m)1,846 ▪Thinking About 2Q19 And What InvestorsCould Be Expecting18 July 2019Pharmaceuticals|CommentPortola Pharmaceuticals Bottom Line:Uptake of Andexxa, the company’s flagship product, remains the primary driver ofhow the stock will react with the announcement of 2Q19 results on August 7th. We believe salesexpectation for Andexxa is likely the consensus forecast of ~$24MM for 2Q19 (our $25MM isroughly in-line) and that this expectation is the most appropriate as there are no robust datasources to triangulate potential company reported Andexxa sales at this time. Management’s intra-quarter commentary suggests that Portola remains comfortable with the consensus forecast.Investors we have spoken to also seem comfortable with the consensus number, and we have notheard of a more bullish buyside expectation for 2Q19 that could disappoint investors as theexpectation did on 1Q19 results, even though Portola reported slightly better-than-consensussales for Andexxa then. We think the relatively newmanagement team is making nice progressonAndexxa launch, but PTLA remains a show-me story, and we think that the next few quarters willbe critical to see how initial demand translate into orders and the likelihood of the productachieving our forecast of $1.34Bn for peak global sales. ▪Not Possible toForecast PotentialReported2Q19 Andexxa Salesat This Time: IMS andSymphony both report sales for Andexxa, but these data sources so far have substantiallyunderreported actual company reported sales that make triangulating potential reported sales forAndexxa not possible at this time. From 3Q18-1Q19, Symphony reported sales that were 14%,11%, and 22% of actual Andexxa sales, while IMS reported 16%, 19%, and 13% of actualAndexxa sales for the corresponding quarters. ▪Gen 2 Launch,Hospital Penetration and Re-order RateLikely Key Investor Focus:Portola’s guidance has been to add 100 hospitals per quarter, and at the end of 1Q19 about 300hospitals were stocking Andexxa. The re-order rate increased to 55% from 50%, with significantlyhigher re-order rates for early adopting hospitals. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
6388 | Re: CS Opines on PTLA and Andexxa Sales | TaiTienMuyBien | 2 | 7/18/2019 7:49:20 PM |