Re: US BanCorp
"...what are you expecting...?
I expect a revenue beat. They'll continue to grow revenues at increased cost of doing business for the next several quarters. We'll need to pay careful attention to earnings guidance for projections. LBx is a notoriously low margin enterprise, and a ramp-up to the commercial IVD market will likely mean a dilutive offering - unless they can constructively partner. In addition to providing therapeutic guidance in oncology, Mike'll need to co-develop partnerings in CDx and drug development to thrive in this competitive space. Having a differentiated platform that co-targets CTCs and ctDNA may not be enough to survive, so I'd like to see them move into exosomal fragment readout...and miRNA analysis as well to ensure future competitiveness.
A "best" LBx partner would have a viable, IP-protected platform in exosomal assay or miRNA - or both. A good CDx partner would have a clearly differentiated treatment with a poorly understood MOA, reasonable broad-spectrum application, and ascertainable markers that can determine onset of treatment-induced resistance as well as predict response to therapy. Drug development will be a slower process, and later in the game.
If management continues to execute on a growth model, revenues continue to grow, payors sign up for imbursements, and clinicians actually see cost-effective benefit in prescribing the Target Selector...Biocept could have a first break-even quarter by late 2018. That's a lot of "ifs", and a lot must go smoothly. Only time can tell if it'll be worth the wait for shareholders...