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GasLog Partners LP

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Msg  73 of 105  at  2/7/2020 6:25:40 PM  by


copy from MLP board

 by poster papaloapan


Disastrous price action on the stock, which reflects the external affect of instability in the worlds gas markets, and management taking steps to address the certain and probable effects. Shipping markets are notoriously volatile, but as the markets work through the current situation, and near term impacts, the long term forecasts remain fundamentally sound. The bottom line of their actions was to change their focus from distribution orientation to debt reduction, and the benefits of this will be clear in the future.
Market cap for the company has fallen to $250mm, which contrasts to $270mm in EBITDA and $123mm in distributable cash cash flow. Their forecast for 2020 are a drop in EBITDA to $230-260mm. Looking forward to 21, the numbers will reflect the addition of 5 ships in 2020 - all on long term charters - and 2 more in 2021, also chartered.
The current buyback allocation is $25mm, which approaches 10% of the outstanding stock at today's prices.
I would like to know what the steamships were written down to - as to the risk of further future write down - but it seems to me that that they are in an excellent sector, and dealing aggressively with the effect of external factors, which will stabilize. Likely a troubled stock price for the next year, but long term this is going to be selling for much better prices, and the distributable cash flow strategy will return. I have been in for some time - considering the management superior - and while not happy with not having seen this coming, I have bought more rather than sell.

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