|
|
|
|
||
Re: cc comments. -- post CCThe CC numbers were near as good as they could be. In early trading yesterday, there was a gap between the bid at 3.01 and the ask at 3.05. I offered the 3.05 ask (settlement a bit less on a few trades) for a portion of the cash I had to put back into PXLW, and kept paying the ask, until the price moved past the 3.05 ask where the market opened. I ended up with maybe half of what I was willing to buy. ...if we drop on a down market day or a run of negative sentiment, I'll put the rest of my allocated capital into shares. I think most of the buyers yesterday were probably on the sidelines waiting for a safe-to-buy moment. ---- The risk of further dilution seems pretty low. Other than maybe if MTM or another Chinese strategic says they want to buy more shares, and PXLW gets a strategic benefit. I was surprised that mobile was so high and projection so low in Q1 -- even though those ranges were guided. $4M in mobile is not terrible, given that we don't have a big volume phone/lost big clients/phones and a first-time discount to Vivo. That's a $16M annual run rate. Projector OEMs must really be letting their inventory run dry (as was also said in the CC.) In terms of PXLW running at "capacity" going forward, it sounds as though mobile and projection both have a lot of momentum. With projection coming back, it's going to be hard for PXLW to lose money as we get into 2H. --- The TrueCut comments sounded pretty lame. The analysts didn't bother asking anything about it. A non issue to the analysts, even though TrueCut is the driver right now of whether PXLW has a chance at a breakout. My sense is that the analysts had written PXLW off as something they were interested in for now, and used most of their questions to learn more about the chip supply chain issues, which was relevent to the other companies these analysts covered. ---- DeBonis sounded to me as a CEO guy who has lost his sense of where to go. He's just plodding at this point, pushing forward the stuff he's good at doing. ....he looks good every day within the company because the stuff he's doing he's good at. Chip development and decision making. Customer sales. Coordinating and leading the team. He's a good COO. DeBonis clearly, to my sense, has little visceral sense of how to fix the TrueCut sales effort and the guys selling it are largely left alone, with PXLW management left at home crossing their fingers, while hoping something breaks through. ....Whereas DeBonis feels he can throw himself into any part of the chip sales and R&D ecosystem and have an impact, he is a non-entity in terms of who to speak to and how to push forward TrueCut. ---- Unless TrueCut is about to hit an oil vein, the economic gain from going in the direction we are going, vs a sale, is just so goddam stupid. I have little doubt PXLW can keep building mobile revenues, and projection will get back to its historical role of paying enough of the bills to keep PXLW from losing money. XCode has largey hit the wall, and it's a minor product at this point, with no or even reversing growth....maybe a teeny bump as we head into the Japan Olympics. However, this course is a net value loser every day that DeBonis is kept as the CEO, holding the Company hostage to his, and his managers' and BOD clocking in their stock options and salaries for being talented operators of a niche chip company. If we sold PXLW, we would probably get at a market cap that's some very substantial premium of the current market cap. ....If DeBonis and the BOD owned 100% of the company, there is no way they would operate with the current stragegy, vs frittering their IP value every day they stay independent. ....We're in a race and we're going as fast as we can, and every time we look back, the other guys are a bit closer. We're out of breath we're going so fast and....the guys in the back just keep getting closer, and are stronger. If PXLW were an NFL team, they would hire a new coach, with a new direction and vision, even as the current coach -- DeBonis -- is pretty good at his job, and performing well, within his narrow range of imagination. We all might get saved if TrueCut pans out. The economic leverage of that is massive, relative to the market cap of PXLW. Even if TrueCut's revenues are limited to start, if there's a big streamer who adopts it, PXLW is in a relative break-out value position... ....and a value that we not fully monetize if the Company were sold. So -- is TrueCut happening? If it is, then I understand DeBonis' strategy. ...if it's just spinning wheels and the guys hawking TrueCut are phoning in the same reports month to month and DeBonis knows instinctively it's not happening, then DeBonis is so not the guy to be CEO ....he's the obstacle...he's keeping his and his co-managers jobs intact by plodding quite competently forward. But, in representing PXLW shareholders, he's possibly sort of a jerk.**?....he knows our best economic bet is to sell while we have an edge in the IP, and where the momentum is upward. But, he's found himself in a position where the BOD is letting him -- and I guess them if they're clocking their time cards -- fleece the shareholders a bit every day, just so we won't notice, but enough to transfer increasing wealth from the shareholders to the Agency-guys...i.e. DeBonis and his managers and the passive BOD, racking their options in exchange for not rocking the boat. I hope TrueCut happens. If it does, it will go a long way in helping to understand why DeBonis is sticking with what otherwise seems to be an exploitive relative value strategy of Agency guys (Him) vs Owners. --- ** The use of the word "jerk" is a bit mean but, I kept it in and here's why. ....DeBonis has got to know that he would take a different value optimization strategy if he and the BOD were 100% owners. ...just a little bit every day, just slow enough that a hedge fund or an honest-BOD member calls him out for his Agency power-value-transfer-move ....Unless there's somethning about to pop with TrueCut ..It's not to say there isn't evolutionary mobile progress (though we had mind-numbing reversales that became evident in Q1 despite his last CC' verbiage.) ...However, DeBonis is keeping the owners locked into a relatively deteriorating market position and value situation .... where our relative IP advantage dissipates, and anyone who might pay a fat premium is just as likely being cornered into building out their own solutions because of DeBonis' Agency exploitation. ....What I wouldn't give to talk to a hedge fund right now.....the easiest money they'll make is to buy a share block and call DeBonis out....and if they get seats on the BOD, they'll know whether TrueCut is happening or an illusion DeBonis dare not call yet. ...If PXLW were put on the market, the take-out price would be exceedingly large relative to market cap...and not a single engineer would lose their job. |
return to message board, top of board |
Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
2029 | Re: cc comments. -- post CC: Art vs Performance | entrepreneur | 0 | 5/6/2021 10:14:14 AM |
2030 | Re: cc comments. -- post CC | BogRat | 0 | 5/6/2021 11:47:50 AM |