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Cannacord stuff mentions RMPCanaccord on Canuck E&P's Upcoming potential catalysts and Q1 preview for Junior & Intermediate E&Ps Here we anticipate important potential catalysts for each of our Junior/Intermediate E&P's under coverage; we discuss expected timing and potential impact and provide a Q1/17 earnings preview. We focus on key operational events, financial highlights, and note key Q1 and year-end reserve report themes. Potential catalysts to watch for: • Well results. With companies returning to the drill bit in earnest in Q1 (Figure 7) we anticipate meaningful well results for several of our companies: ATH's Montney battery and Duvernay results, WCP's SW Sask wells and ERF's Fort Berthold Bakken. In addition, TOG's development program in the Torquay, CPG's horizontal program in the Uinta Basin, CR's newly completed Montney wells at Tower and RMP's well data from Elmworth (Gold Creek) could all be material for their respective share prices. • Operational catalysts. Additionally, potential operational catalysts include CPG's new waterflood technology (injection control device), the improved margin from additional egress capacity for ERF out of both the Bakken and the Marcellus, ATH’s recently completed Montney battery at Placid and BXE's Alder Flats plant expansion which is expected to double the inlet capacity. These could provide further upward momentum for the names. Other operational catalysts of note include PPY’s Townsend plant expansion, PXX’s Phase 2 Onion Lake construction and SGY’s Upper Shaunavon waterflood results. • Financial catalysts. SGY recently increased its dividend on the back of an acquisition. Based on low payout ratios, other oil-weighted divco’s that have the potential to raise the dividend in the next 12 months, in our view, include VET, TOG and WCP. Q1 Preview Q1 results. In this piece, we provide Q1 reporting dates and analyst forecasts for each of our companies under coverage, in addition to colour on our expectations for the quarter. We have made modest adjustments to a number of our company estimates ahead of the quarter. Companies we believe could beat analyst expectations for Q1 include TOG, BXE and ERF. Companies where we anticipate meaningful operational updates include CJ, CPG and RMP. Activity ramping. As mentioned above, we anticipate meaningful well results for several of our companies. In Figure 7, we show Q1/17 spuds compared to Q1/16 and Q1/15 spuds in our coverage universe; 831 wells were spud in Q1/17, almost double over Q1/16 with 421 spuds. Notable mentions include BTE drilling 60 wells in Q1/17 (up from 1 in Q1/16), CR drilling 18 wells up from 2 in Q1/16, and BNE drilling 13 wells up from 2 in Q1/16. RRX, PXX, WCP and SGY have also notably ramped up drilling. Top Picks We continue to recommend TOG, BNE and WCP for oil exposure, PPY, PNE and PEY for natural gas, and VET and ERF for a balance of the two. Full report - lots more info. (thanks carswell!) |
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