From the post you are referencing, we have seen 2 events in which no one could have known. I initially had the opinion that the stock price would trend higher as anticipation and speculation of the Sep 30th data release ramped up. That event would lead to a sell on the news type event as there would be a time void on the next material catalyst.
After the first catalyst which the company than came out and acknowledged, I still expected the pps to have a positive slant up until the 30th even though the news was already, imo, fully baked in because i expected momentum to continue as speculation ramped up. I somewhat expressed this view on 9/4 when i stated "The higher the pps goes the more delusional hyperbolic speculative nonsense will be posted. Personally I hope that the stock pops a lot higher prior to the 1 person data release and gives me the opportunity to exit at my sell points. This journey on TCRT is far from being over."
We then saw the other bit of new information, anecdotal FB report of patient #2, on Friday which caused another spike in the pps. I could even make an argument that someone had this information on Wednesday as the stock acted like someone had some news as the pps popped from 2.91 to a closing price of 3.44.
You ask a good question, how much more will this rise into the conference. You could ask ten people this question and they will give you ten different answers. With the news of patient #2, i chose to treat Friday in part as a sell on the news. I sold enough shares to take my investment dollars off the table plus some additional profit. What also concerned me was the anecdotal report on the SAE for patient #2. While the patient recovered from it, what would have happened to the pps if she had passed away?
At this point, I largely see the stock being range bound until Sep 30th. A lot of good news has been priced into the stock. I am not a "keys to the kingdom" type TCRT investor. I do not hold the opinion that the share price is going to pop to $10 on this data or even $7 and hold there. If i am wrong than it will have cost me additional profits. That is investing.
If the stock appreciates further into the $5 range prior to the 30th, i will look to further reduce. The journey for TCRT in the clinic is just beginning. Just like other biotech companies I am expecting many turns in the road, both positive and negative.