It's always easier to look back and create critical analysis than it is to look into the future.
The stock market doesn't care much about what has occurred and instead focuses on what's ahead. Pursuant to this unequivocal thesis, the current valuation of XON reflects investor's apprehensions about the ability of the company to deliver on it's promises.
Our resident longtime bull, Redwood, spends plenty of time and pixels making claims about all the progress the company is making and specifically how successful Helen and her portfolio of future therapies will be. Red also takes the time to spin and weave an optimistic picture of the GTL business and it's recent Dewhurst-led investment.
On the former, I too can wish for the same, but have not the same degree of faith he has. It remains too binary, too speculative to believe the kinds of breakthroughs that have been perpetually promised are anywhere near to reporting sufficient data that would lead to partnership(s), capital infusions, or even commercialization. We shall see.
On the latter (GTL), as an investor in an associated entity, I have far, far less faith. A combination of unmet promises, premature claims, technical scaling issues, and utter lack of transparency have all combined to offer insufficient exceptions for any commercial success anytime soon.
What's my point, you might ask? It's really simple. Since Mr. Market is a known discounting machine, it's abundantly obvious that XON, and it's over-promising, underdelivering chairman and largest stockholder, are only worth the $5.0 and pennies it trades at. Much closer to Mabel's take than Redwoods.
Do I think it could appreciate (or depreciate) from here? For sure. As I mentioned weeks back, I think the stock is washed out. There will be the weight of year-end tax selling and algorithms set to recognize such. The disbelief and lack of faith in the non-transparency of management, coupled with a feckless BoD serves as an understandable lid on this stock. Any term bull needs to absolutely recognize and weight this accordingly.
I've long liked the tenet taking long hard looks at buying to into considerable weakness am a speculative trading share only buyer somewhere in the 4's. Any tangible good news...from Helen or even some honest and open dialogue from Kirk might lift this stock into the 6-7 area....and thus produce a nice trading return.